Let’s start reviewing the top line moves and best winning trends for a Hump Day. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (326-266 L105D)
NBA – (705) MILWAUKEE at (706) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET FSWI, CSN-P
Anyone who follows the NBA knows the 76ers stink, yet surprisingly they are 8-6 ATS at home despite their sorry 1-14 record. This has not stopped bettors from raising Philly from +5 to +6.5 against Milwaukee, who is much improved at 18-18 and a startling 24-11-1 ATS. This could well be the right move since road favorites going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55%, are 30-7 ATS the past five years. SWM Take – Milwaukee covers
NBA – (719) PHOENIX at (720) MINNESOTA 9:35 ET ESPN
The total in this Western Conference clash has gone up like the temperatures going down in the upper part of the country. With Phoenix and Minnesota ranked 28th and 30th in points allowed in the Association, the total is up three points to 217.5. It is a given the T-Wolves will be defenseless, but the Suns send out conflicting signals. Phoenix is 10-2 OVER on the road when the total is 210 or higher; however they are 12-3 UNDER when playing the second of back to back contests. We’ll back the latter. SWM Take – Play Under
CBB – (729) FLORIDA at (730) SOUTH CAROLINA 7:00 ET SECN
South Carolina is playing its best basketball since Frank Martin has taken over as head coach at 9-3 (7-3 ATS), nevertheless hoops players are siding with pedigree in moving floundering Florida (7-6, 3-7-2 ATS) from +2 to -1.5. The Gators have lacked bite on the road and are shooting just 38.3 percent on the road. South Carolina is playing defensively like Martin’s Kansas State clubs, holding the opposition to just 33.8%, which is fourth nationally. Florida is 6-0 and 4-2 ATS in recent gatherings, just not sure if they should be favorites. SWM Take – South Carolina covers
CBB – (761) SOUTHERN ILLINOIS at (762) NORTHERN IOWA 8:00 ET ESPN3.com
Northern Iowa is off to a sensational 12-2 start, but is not dominating the opposition and is 6-6 ATS, which includes three recent non-cover failures. No question this is why the Panthers are down two points to -14.5 despite Southern Illinois battling a four-game losing streak and not having beaten the spread since Dec. 10, which is over six contests. Another hypothetical factor is the Salukis have only shot 33.3% in their last two games and are bound to make more shots since they connect on 42.3% on the season. Nonetheless, UNI is 14-3 and 11-5-1 ATS when SIU visits. SWM Take – Lean Southern Illinois
NHL – (3) BOSTON at (4) PITTSBURGH 8:05 ET NBCSN
Boston is 5-11 SU since Dec. 1 and new CEO Charlie Jacobs expressed his feelings on Monday. “I’d say, without question, this has been a very disappointing year,” Jacobs said. “It’s unacceptable the way this team has performed given the amount of time, money and effort that’s been spent on this team….”Everybody in the executive offices is fully aware how I feel and they feel the same way, which brings us to this evaluation process – and it’s fluid right now. I can’t say at any moment we have a final decision other than to say that it’s been an utter disappointment and a failure, complete failure.” Is this the reason the Bruins went from +145 to +125? Hard to say for sure, but it has to be part of the reasoning along with Pittsburgh 2-5 in their last seven contests. SWM Take – Lean Boston
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NBA ATS Trend
Orlando is 0-10 ATS in January road games the last two seasons.
NBA Totals Trend
Memphis is 12-0 UNDER after a cover as a double digit favorite.
CBB ATS Trend
Utah is 18-2 ATS off a home win the last two seasons.
NHL Money Line Trend
Washington is 13-3 revenging a loss as a favorite.