Back to football and as it turns out all three games have generated a lot of wagering action. In addition, we have a baseball game with a flipped favorite. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (119-91 L48D)
NFL –(101) PITTSBURGH at (102) BALTIMORE 8:25 E CBS
While most of the talk of this always fiercely physical contest has centered on can Baltimore bounce back or are they headed towards another dismal campaign, the total has gone up a point to 44.5. While these games annually have been head-knockers, both defenses are in transition from a couple years ago and what slips thru the cracks is these teams are 4-1 OVER in Crap Cake city the last four years. Pittsburgh comes into this contest 14-5 OVER in road games after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game, which lends support to the line move. SWM Take – Lean Over
CFB – (103) LOUISIANA TECH at (104) NORTH TEXAS 8:00 E CBSSN
The Louisiana Tech upset of Louisiana on the road has been deemed by football bettors as more meaningful than North Texas smashing SMU at home. The Bulldogs are down two points as underdogs to +4.5 in this conference confrontation. Louisiana Tech is on its third consecutive road game and is 2-14 ATS after playing two straight away from home. Update – Louisiana Tech has been as low as +3.5, but as of noon east of the Mississippi, most offshore books at now at 4. Just over 60 percent of bettors are backing North Texas. SWM Take – North Texas covers
CFB – (105) HOUSTON at (106) BYU 9:00 ET ESPN
BYU has been impressive with two convincing away wins and covers and has their home opener against Houston, whom they played a thriller against last year, winning 47-46. BYU has caught the football bettor’s eye and have been elevated two points to -18.5. The concern with such a big number is the home-standing Cougars are 7-26 ATS after a two-game road trip. Update – There has been a regression in the number, with most books posting BYU at -17.5 or -18. After attracting 90+ percent early in the week, the home team is now at 72 percent of bets placed. SWM Take – Houston covers
MLB – (915) TAMPA BAY at (916) N.Y. YANKEES 7:05 E MLBN
Despite being three games out of the last wild card spot and having a negative run differential for the season, this past Monday the New York Yankees were still the sixth choice to win the AL at 5Dimes.com. The Yankees are tied in this series with the finale tonight and they opened up as -125 favorites, but quicker the NFL spin team, Tampa Bay became a -107 favorite. With Brett Gardner, Martin Prado and Carlos Beltran all questionable at the moment, the Rays with Alex Cobb (9-7, 2.83 ERA) are getting the nod. Cobb has been shutting down the Yankees, going 5-0 with a 1.24 ERA in his last six starts. Michael Pineda (3-4, 1.80) figures to keep New York in the game since he’s only given up more than two runs in any of his nine outings. With Tampa Bay swinging the lumber well (34 hits in L3 games) and backed by Cobb, I’ll go with public sentiment. SWM Take – Tampa Bay wins
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Kansas City is 17-4 at home with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
MLB Totals Trend
Philadelphia is 15-2 OVER after scoring four runs or less in four straight games this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
Texas is 11-25 as a home underdog this season.
NFL ATS Trend
Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in road games after gaining seven or more yards a play in their previous game.
CFB Totals Trend
North Texas is 8-0 UNDER in home games against conference opponents the last two seasons.