We have a variety of sports dialed up for Thursday, reviewing line moves and today’s top trends. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (268-217 L83D)
NFL – (101) DALLAS at (102) CHICAGO 8:25 ET NFLN
The Dallas defense is showing signs of vulnerability, allowing 26.5 PPG in November, while the Chicago is no longer the “Monsters of the Midway” in conceding 28.1 PPG this season. This combination has helped push the total from 50 to 51.5. This could be correct with the Bears 7-1 OVER as an underdog and the Cowboys 10-2 OVER off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a home favorite. Update – The market has some resistance and moved the total back to 51. Still, two-thirds on the OVER. SWM Take – Play Over
CFB – (103) CENTRAL FLORIDA at (104) EAST CAROLINA 7:30 ET ESPN
The total in this AAC action is down a point to 54.5 and that would suggest football bettors are thinking Central Florida’s top-ranked scoring defense (16.8 PPG) in the conference might dictate the tempo. However, UCF is 25-14 OVER on the conference road and East Carolina is 11-0 OVER after scoring 31 or more points in a trio of outings. Update – Quite a turnaround as this conference clash went all the way to 57 before settling back at 56.5. At last peek, just past 70 percent on the OVER. SWM Take – Lean Over
CBB – (519) CS-NORTHRIDGE at (520) PEPPERDINE 10:00 ET
Though Pepperdine is 3-1 (3-0 ATS) compared to Cal State Northridge being 2-6 (1-6 ATS), the money is on the road team, down two points to +7. The Waves are only shooting 42.5 percent as a team and 26.5 percent beyond the arc and are more relying on their defense as opposed to offense. Northridge is only marginally better on offense and lacks the same defensive chops as their opponent. However, Pepperdine is 3-16 ATS at home off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. SWM Take – Lean CS-Northridge
CBB – (529) MOREHEAD STATE at (530) UAB 8:00 ET ASN, MASN
Morehead State returned four starters and despite a losing record (4-5), they are 5-2 ATS. UAB returns to Birmingham after being battered in Atlantis three times (two covers) by quality competition and finding the school has dumped football. Hoops bettors flipped UAB from 1.5 point home favorites to +1 underdog, evidently not impressed the Blazers covered against both Florida and UCLA and playing pretty solid good defense. UAB is 16-6 ATS after three straight losses. SWM Take – Lean UAB
NHL – (65) ST. LOUIS at (66) NASHVILLE 8:00 ET FSMW, FSTN
With Blues goalie Brian Elliott out indefinitely because of a knee injury, St. Louis signed future Hall of Famer Martin Brodeur, who will wear something other than a New Jersey sweater for the first time in his illustrious NHL career. The 42-year-old netminder has won four Vezina Trophies, three Stanley Cups and a pair of gold medals with Team Canada. “I’ve been waiting for a great opportunity, and it came from the Blues,” Brodeur told the league’s official website. “I just want to have fun. I’ve got nothing to prove to myself. I just want to go out and enjoy the season and enjoy the winning like I was able to do in New Jersey for a lot of years.” Sounds great but pucks bettors not impressed, moving Nashville from -125 to -150 on the money line. Consider Nashville is 10-2 on home ice and off a loss this season; the Predators are 7-0. SWM Take – Nashville wins
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
Dallas is 10-2 ATS in road games after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992.
CFB ATS Trend
Central Florida is 7-0 ATS off a road triumph.
CBB ATS Trend
Vanderbilt is 10-1 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half of last game the last two seasons.
NBA ATS Trend
New York is 0-9 ATS after playing two consecutive games as an underdog this season.
NHL Money Line Trend
Colorado is 21-1 off a home loss the last two seasons.