Quite a bit of action with the numbers in football today and that will be our focus, especially when you consider the only real line move in baseball was Seattle and Toronto and who would not be excited about that! Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll; also, check for Free Picks, 8-0 in the NFL for Week 3. (145-108 L54D)
NFL – (101) N.Y. GIANTS at (102) WASHINGTON 8:25 ET CBS
CBS at least has a division game with a lot of eyeballs to attract viewers in this matchup of mediocrity. I will agree Washington should not have been a 4.5-point home favorite and has been sent to -3.5. The Giants have won enough over the years against Washington on the road, but if New York has running game taken away, do they have enough offense? Update – About half the sportsbooks now have Washington at -3, but you will have to pay the juice to back the favorite off the hook. Two-thirds of bettors are on – here comes that word – the Redskins. SWM Take – Washington covers
CFB – (103) APPALACHIAN STATE at (104) GEORGIA SOUTHERN 7:30 ET ESPNU
Mostly people do not realize both these teams are fresh to D-1 football and are in their first year in the Sun Belt Conference, making this a conference clash. However, these teams are very familiar with one another coming from the Southern Conference (9 FCS titles between them since 1985) with Appalachian State 12-7 SU since 1995 and having won three of the last four at Georgia Southern. However, because the Eagles are 4-0 ATS and few well known handicappers released them earlier this week; Georgia Southern has shot up from -15 to -19. If you like the favorite, keep checking the lines today, I think it will come down. SWM Take – Lean Georgia Southern
CFB – (105) TEXAS TECH at (106) OKLAHOMA STATE 7:30 ET ESPN
The total in this Big 12 battle has been sinking like a Carnival cruise ship. The total was released at 71 and has sunk to 68.5. While Daxx Garman is still an unproven quarterback for Oklahoma State, the Texas Tech defense has been shredded since the middle of last season, thus I’m not sure the number is headed the right direction. Also, Okie State is 11-1 OVER in home games after covering the spread in two out of their last three games; with the average score 70.4 PPG. SWM Take – Lean Over
CFB – (107) UCLA at (108) ARIZONA STATE 10:00 ET FS1
UCLA head coach Jim Mora said he’s going to “push it as far out as you can” before making a decision on whether quarterback Brett Hundley will start tonight against Arizona State. Hundley injured his left (non-throwing) elbow in UCLA’s 20-17 win over Texas 12 days ago and Mora has not hinted what he might do. Football bettors are anticipating Hundley joins the fray, lifting the total from 60 to 65. The last four meetings between these teams have been OVER’s; however, the highest closing total in those contests was 60.5. With UCLA 7-0 UNDER in road games and one hit or bad spill from Hundley taking a seat, I’ll go against the betting public. SWM Take – Play Under
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Atlanta is 5-16 in September games this season.
MLB Totals Trend
San Diego is 13-1 UNDER as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season.
MLB Run Line Trend
Boston is 0-11 after scoring nine runs or more this season.
NFL Totals Trend
The Giants are 10-2 UNDER off one or more Over’s since 2012.
CFB ATS Trend
UCLA is 6-21 ATS in road games after three or more consecutive straight up wins.