Today we will look at the Friday line moves, look ahead to the big games in college basketball on Saturday and review the latest in the NFL odds for Sunday title games. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (341-287 L112D)
NBA – (805) DETROIT at (806) INDIANA 7:05 ET FS-D, FS-IN
The opening betting odds had the Pacers as 1.5 point home favorites but after consecutive losses to lowly Philadelphia and Minnesota and sporting a 1-5 ATS record in their last five tries, those making NBA picks have flipped the script and made Indiana 1.5 point underdogs. Helping this adjustment is Detroit being winners of eight of 10; nevertheless, there are signs of weakness, with the Pistons 1-3 ATS in recent outings. The absence of guard George Hill further compromises the Pacers. SWM Take – Lean Indiana
NBA – (503) GOLDEN STATE at (504) OKLAHOMA CITY 8:05 ET ESPN
So much for NBA basketball handicappers like me and numerous others thinking Oklahoma City was in the “perfect” rest situation last night at Houston. The Thunder had not played in nearly a week and instead of being fresh, they came out flatter than a tortilla shell, giving up 40 first quarter points to the Rockets and were never in the game in defeat. Sportsbooks had originally made Oklahoma City a 1.5 point home choice, but quicker than Target closing all its stores in Canada, Kevin Durant and the crew were 2.5 point underdogs. Golden State has been the best team in the league all year and OKC is a floundering 1-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. SWM Take – Golden State covers
CBB – (831) IONA at (832) NIAGARA 7:00 ET ESPNU
One again Iona is one of the top scoring teams in the country, averaging 83.8 PPG, which is fourth in the country. The Gaels fast-paced style also has them surrendering quite a few points, allowing 75.8 PPG. Tonight they visit rival Niagara in conference play and the total is falling like a barrel going down the Niagara Falls from 158 to 155. Last season, these teams easily surpassed totals in the 160’s, but the Purple Eagles are averaging only 61.7 PPG and shoot under 39 percent as a team, leading to the reduction. SWM Take – Play Under
NHL – (55) VANCOUVER at (56) CAROLINA 7:05 ET SN, FS-C
For a second straight night, Vancouver has the attention of those putting out hockey sports picks. Last evening the Canucks were a growing favorite and flushed Philly 4-0 to end their three-game losing streak. This is not the case tonight, as Vancouver has been shifted from -120 on the money line to +105 road underdogs. Carolina has started the new year at 4-2 and despite their 14-29 overall record, they are 10-10 on home ice, which includes four consecutive wins. The Hurricanes have dropped three in a row to the Canucks, but Vancouver is 2-10 away after allowing one or fewer goals in previous contest. SWM Take – Carolina wins
NFL Betting Trends – The Green Bay vs. Seattle matchup saw Seattle rise from -7 to -7.5 almost immediately last Sunday and has been steady since. The total was also moderately adjusted from 47 to 46.5 and unless something happens from a betting syndicate or large wagers come late, the betting patterns suggest these numbers should hold.
New England was a solid -7 for most of the week, but by Thursday evening, began to see books lowering the Patriots to -6.5. It is possible one could find the Patriots at -6, however, by Sunday, -6.5 or -7 figures to be the closing number. The opening total of 53.5 is showing weakness and several books in Vegas are now at 54 and expect that to become universal, if not rising to 54.5.
CBB Matchups – Saturday
(533) DUKE at (534) LOUISVILLE 12:00 ET ESPN
The Blue Devils have been upset by non-ranked opponents in their past two games and been exposed on the defense for having a devil of a time guarding the pick-and-roll. Both Miami and N.C. State shot over 51 percent and Louisville’s guards are very capable of breaking down Duke. One difference between the Cardinals and the last two teams to defeat Duke, the Wolfpack and Hurricanes had guards who are good outside shooters, something Louisville lacks, as noted by their 43.5 shooting percentage as a team. Expecting the ‘Ville to be a 1-3 point favorites.
(543) KANSAS at (544) IOWA STATE 9:00 ET ESPN
This is not your typical Kansas squad which overwhelms opposing teams with talent and speed, yet having won and covered five in a row, Bill Self’s team is figuring out how to play as a unit. They will be going to face “Hilton Magic” on ESPN primetime and Iowa State is coming off a difficult last second one point loss at Baylor. The Cyclones have no chance if Georges Niang continues to shoot 16-for-50 like he has the past four games. I’m calling for Iowa State to be a 3-4 point favorite, but Kansas has won 18 of the 20 SU and is 7-3 ATS of late.
(599) WEST VIRGINIA AT (600) TEXAS 6:15 ET ESPN
In November and December, Texas looked like they could be the team to end Kansas Big 12 dominance. Recent developments have them losing three of their past four SU and ATS. The Longhorns offense has gone dormant, averaging 60.7 PPG. This could be a real conundrum since West Virginia plays a fast-paced, high energy tempo and averages 78.8 PPG. The Mountaineers are 9-0 and 6-2 ATS away home and they should the very short road underdogs in Austin, with a real shot to win.
(635) UTAH at (636) ARIZONA 7:00 ET PAC-12N
Larry Krystkowiak’s has the Utah program not only on the rise, but among the best in the country this season. The Utes have terrific personnel and could establish themselves as the team to beat in the Pac-12 with a triumph in Tucson. Arizona is loaded also but has offensive inconsistencies which have led to two losses and a pedestrian 8-9 ATS mark. The Wildcats will probably be a three-four point favorite, however, based quality power rankings; they should be no more than a Pick.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NBA ATS Trend
Cleveland is 1-12 ATS after one or more consecutive Over’s this season.
NBA ATS Trend
Phoenix is 13-1 OVER versus teams averaging 83 or more shots a game this season.
CBB ATS Trend
Marist is 0-9 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more the last two seasons.
NHL Money Line Trend
Nashville is 16-2 as a home favorite this season.
NFL ATS Trend
Seattle is 8-0 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points the last two seasons. (Sunday)