Big Ten basketball conference play kicks off today and ESPN2 is trying to steal FS1 thunder with openers all day before tomorrow in the Big East. Ohio State is down 1.5 points in their opener hosting Iowa. We have three other line moves for Tuesday, plus a first look at the NFL Wild card action. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (316-257 L101D)
CFB – (245) LOUISVILLE vs. (246) GEORGIA 6:30 ET ESPN
The total on the Belk Bowl has seen more twists and turns than an episode of ‘Castle’. The opening number of 56.5 went to 58.5, slid back to 57, went back to 58 and sits at the moment at 57.5. The sense I get from this matchup is you would have ticket that either has Louisville and UNDER and Georgia and OVER. Both teams are very capable of making this a high or low scoring game. I’ll side with the former, quite sure big plays will be a big part of this contest. SWM Take – Lean Over
NBA – (501) DETROIT at (502) ORLANDO 7:05 ET FSD, FSFL
It does not seem to be a coincidence that the departure of Josh Smith has led to arguably the two best performances of the season by Detroit in winning and covering their last two games for just the second time this season. Orlando has also won and covered their last two outings yet has gone from -2 to +1. Here is why this happened. The Pistons do have more talent than the Magic, though it is highly dysfunctional, and the fact Orlando is 2-7 (3-6 ATS) at home since Nov. 19th. SWM Take – Orlando covers
CBB – (563) ILLINOIS at (564) MICHIGAN 3:00 ET ESPN2
Michigan has been a major disappointment thus far with a 7-5 record and are 2-7-1 ATS, having yet to cover a spread this month. Despite this, basketball bettors see an Illinois team whose free-wheeling style looks good before conference play but leads too many missed shots once the passing lanes close and the defense tightens. The Wolverines have been lifted from -1.5 to -3 and they are 10-2 ATS when the Fighting Illini visit Jim Harbaugh’s new residence. SWM Take – Michigan covers
NFL – Saturday (105) ARIZONA at (106) CAROLINA 4:25 ET ESPN
Carolina is up a point to -5.5 and I am convinced this has to do with Arizona more than the Panthers. The Cardinals backup quarterbacks are averaging just over 12 points a game and their once vaunted defense has been vulnerable to both the run and the pass in recent outings. Carolina has the edge in the trenches and at quarterback, making it logical for such a line move. Betting Trend – 63 percent backing Carolina
NFL – (101) DETROIT at (102) DALLAS 4:40 ET FOX
The total has edged upward from 48 to 49 and rest assured it has nothing to do with Matthew Stafford and Detroit offense. This cast is not performing at a playoff level and unless they connect on big plays that set up scores, hard to imagine the Lions reaching 20 points. With Ndamukong Suh expected to stay suspended, the Dallas offense could be more potent than expected. Betting Trend – 88 percent backing the Over
NFL – (107) CINCINNATI at (108) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET CBS
The sportsbooks total of 50 swiftly fell to 48.5 before settling at 49 for this Wild Card encounter. This is a reflection of a lack of faith in QB Andy Dalton to perform at a high level in playoff game. In three previous postseason appearances, Dalton and the Bengals have averaged 11 points a game and if wide receiver A.J. Green is out, how do the Bengals match points with Indianapolis? Betting Trend – 59 percent backing the Over
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
CFB ATS Trend
Louisville is 7-0 ATS in away games playing against a team with a winning record the last three seasons.
NBA ATS Trend
Washington is 25-8 ATS revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points the last two seasons.
CBB ATS Trend
UL-Monroe is 10-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite.
NHL Money Line Trend
Nashville is 11-0 off a loss this season.