Covered a lot of territory for these line moves for Friday and Saturday, dig in. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (300-236 L94D)
NBA – (805) MINNESOTA at (806) BOSTON 7:35 ET FSNO, CSN-NE
The total has been flying all over the place on this NBA contest. The opening number was at 209 and like a runaway freight train went to 212 before hitting the brakes and skidding to 211. Defensively, these two clubs rank 28th and 29th in points allowed and Minnesota is 8-0 OVER having lost four of five. The Timberwolves have injuries and have been playing quality competition of late and backing the Over could be problematic since they have averaged 91.4 PPG in their last five tries. SWM Take – Lean Under
CBB – (827) ARIZONA at (828) UTEP 11:00 ET FS-1
Based on where the number is going, you would never guess Arizona is one of the top teams in the country. The third-ranked Wildcats began at -7.5 and are down to -5. UTEP can match points with Arizona, however, they do not come close to playing the same kind of half court defense. The Miners top scorer Vince Hunter will need a monster game and the defense will needs to force Arizona execute in the half court. Of note, UTEP is 8-1 ATS versus teams scoring 77 or more points, while the ‘Cats are 26-14 ATS in non-conference action. SWM Take – Lean Arizona
NFL –Saturday (103) SAN DIEGO at (104) SAN FRANCISCO 8:25 ET CBS
Both these offenses have been in the doldrums of late which has helped lower the total a point to 41.5. QB Philip Rivers is banged up playing behind a makeshift line and his counterpart Colin Kaepernick has lost his confidence as a passer. San Francisco is 9-2 UNDER as a favorite and 12-4 UNDER coming off a road game. Update – The total has taken one more dip down to 41, though just 55 percent of bettors are actually playing it. SWM Take – Play Under
CFB – Saturday (201) NEVADA vs. (202) LOUISIANA 11:00 ET ESPN
This is Louisiana’s fourth straight trip to the New Orleans Bowl and one cannot help but think fans and players are a little bored despite the closer proximity and yet they went from +3 to a Pick. The Ragin’ Cajuns were thought to be modest underachievers by not winning the Sun Belt with a veteran squad and faces a Nevada squad that can match their offense and is 5-1 ATS on the road this season. Update – The money has swung a little back towards Nevada who is now a one-point favorite, with 68 percent playing their money on the Wolf Pack. SWM Take – Nevada covers
CFB – Saturday (203) UTEP vs. (204) UTAH STATE 2:20 ET ESPN *New*
The total on the New Mexico Bowl has fallen like gas prices from 50 to 46. I must be missing something because nothing stands out for this steep of a drop, because Utah State has been playing their fourth-string quarterback for some time. UTEP is not fantastic on offense (averaged 4.5 PPG less then opponents allowed), which means a solid Aggies defense could limit their points. Based on the current lines, oddsmakers are calling for Utah State to win 28-18, which is not out of the realm of possibility. SWM Take – Lean Over
CFB – Saturday (205) UTAH vs. (206) COLORADO STATE 3:30 ET ABC
Though Utah plays from the superior conference and Colorado State lost their head coach, the Utes have slipped from -4.5 to -3.5 favorites in the Las Vegas Bowl. What caused this occur is Colorado State has a 124-yard edge in offense and the Utah defense is vulnerable to the pass. However, Utes coach Kyle Whittingham is 7-1 and 6-2 ATS in bowl games. Update – It must be respected money that is following Colorado State, as they are down to +3 or +2.5 depending on the sportsbook, as just under 50 percent have chosen the Rams. It’s worth noting interim coaches are 8-15 ATS of late. SWM Take – Lean Utah
CFB – Saturday (207) WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. (208) AIR FORCE 5:45 ET ESPN
In the Potato Bowl, we have two teams they were pathetic a year ago and completely turned their seasons around. Western Michigan was 1-11 and went 8-4 this year with a 10-2 ATS mark. The Air Force went from 2-10 to 9-3 and has gone from +2.5 to -1 with sports bettors wondering if the Broncos can really stop their option offense effectively. Update – Presently the books are split with Falcons a Pick or -1. Over 80 percent are on the Flyboys. SWM Take – Air Force covers
CFB – Saturday (209) SOUTH ALABAMA vs. (210) BOWLING GREEN 9:15 ET ESPN
The final bowl of the day is the Camellia Bowl. South Alabama did not have a football program in 2008 yet in six short seasons they are already in a FBS bowl and a growing favorite. The Jaguars have been taken from -1.5 to -3, yet both teams come into this matchup just 2-4 SU in the second half of the season with just one cover. Update – We have a buyback in Birmingham, with almost all reporting stations at 2.5. Just over 50 percent are on South Alabama. SWM Take – Lean South Alabama
CFB – Monday (211) BYU vs. (212) MEMPHIS 2:00 ET ESPN *New*
AAC co-champs Memphis has gone from a Pick to -2 in the Miami Beach Bowl. Both squads bring significant winning streaks into this bowler. The Tigers have more speed than most realize if you have not seen them play and the most likely reason Memphis has attracted more attention is because they surrender 8.1 fewer points per game than BYU against fairly similar schedules. SWM Take – Slight lean with BYU
Top 3 Betting Football Favorites (In Order by Number of Bets Placed) – Air Force, Chargers and Eagles
Top 3 Betting Football Totals (In Order by Number of Bets Placed) – Nevada OVER, Memphis UNDER and Utah State UNDER
CBB Matchups – Saturday
(525) NORTH CAROLINA vs (526) OHIO STATE 1:00 ET CBS
I’m figuring Ohio State to be a three-point or lower favorite and should cover as long as they pressure G Marcus Paige. When he’s under attack, the Tar Heels offense slows to crawl. Also, the Buckeyes have better deep shooters which should help them.
(543) UCLA vs. (544) KENTUCKY 3:30 ET CBS
I’m anticipating the top-ranked Wildcats will be 12-15 point favorites against a UCLA squad that has shown better than what most would have believed back in October. However, too much length and size from Kentucky will cause severe scoring droughts for the Bruins and the ‘Cats pull away.
(581) WASHINGTON vs. (582) OKLAHOMA 9:00 ET ESPNU
Top 20 matchup in Las Vegas and I’ll call for Oklahoma to be favored in the 4-6 point range. The Sooners look to be the play because they are stronger and more physical upfront and should wear down the Huskies in the second half.
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NFL ATS Trend
Philadelphia is 14-7-1 ATS at Washington.
CBB ATS Trend
Utah State is 13-3 ATS after forcing one or fewer turnovers.
NBA ATS Trend
Utah is 12-0 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive Over’s the last three seasons.
CBB ATS Trend
Miami is 13-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more the last three seasons.
NHL Money Line Trend
Dallas is 2-11 after one or more consecutive Under’s this season.