Nice variety pack of line moves today in the various sports. And no I’m not writing about the Pirates up 30 cents to -240, I trust if you are a sports bettor you not need me to tell you why that happened. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (128-103 L51D)
NFL – (301) TAMPA BAY at (302) ATLANTA 8:25 ET CBS
With the total up a point, this tells me football bettors are convinced Atlanta will set the tempo playing the Georgia Dome with their high-powered offense. While Tampa Bay has some good defensive players, this team is nothing like Cincinnati across their three levels of defense. On offense, the Buccaneers have looked, well, like the Buccaneers, but I would be shocked if they did not play better in this game because the Falcons are last in total yards allowed (granted, against two very explosive offenses) and RB Bobby Rainey could have another very good game. Yes, the Bucs are 6-0 UNDER in September since last year, but the Birds are 9-2 OVER in the dome this month of late and they and Tampa Bay fly over the total. SWM Take – Play Over
CFB – (303) AUBURN at (304) KANSAS STATE 7:30 ET ESPN (side and total)
Sportsbooks must being getting respected money to move Auburn from -8 to -7 and shift the total from 66 to 64.5. Auburn is 14-2 ATS since last season and is 8-1 ATS off a home win, but venerable coach Bill Snyder has prepared his teams well as home underdogs, posting a 20-10 ATS in the stadium named after him and family. What makes these numbers curious is 68 percent of the action is still on the Tigers and 76 percent is riding the OVER. What home dog players are counting on is the Auburn offense will not be as stinging on the road, though Gus Malzahn’s crew rang up 41 PPG away last year. One huge key to both the side and total is the K-State run defense. Auburn averages 6.7 YPC and if the Wildcats surrender 5.5 YPC or more, they are 2-10 ATS. Also, here is a little nugget about coach Snyder since his return, his team’s are 10-2 OVER at home after two or more consecutive straight up wins. SWM Take – Auburn covers and Over
MLB – (967) SEATTLE at (968) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET ROOT-NW, FSW
With the AL West title secured, the Los Angeles Angels can focus on finishing with home-field advantage throughout the postseason. Tonight we have a premier pitching matchup with Felix Hernandez (14-5, 2.14 ERA) facing Jered Weaver (17-8, 3.50). With the Angels expected to sit down a few regulars and Seattle still in the wild card chase, the Mariners were sent out as -140 froad favorites and have been bet up to -150. Unless the Halos are going to have Weaver pitch just three innings and not start any of the their regulars, this line is very inflated when you consider the highest money line favorite role for King Felix in the Big A ever was -110 twice. This is not an easy game to figure because of the mental state of the Angels. SWM Take – Lean Seattle
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
L.A. Dodgers are 18-3 after two or more consecutive losses this season.
MLB Totals Trend
Cleveland is 14-2 UNDER vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season.
MLB Run Line Trend
Toronto is 2-13 in road games vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season.
NFL ATS Trend
Atlanta is 18-6 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games.