Beyond the main NCAA Tournament, many of the other tourney’s replicate the equivalent of the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl from college football and when teams from small conferences, who seldom play lined games, face those from bigger conferences, pretty much all hell breaks loose which is why team like Boston U., Radford, Hampton, USC Upstate and Texas A&M Corpus have seen their matchups have changing numbers. In the NBA, we also saw quite a switch as Spurs and Lakers total which shot up two points last night to 224, but has gone down the Pacific Ocean tide to 221.5. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll.
NBA – (607) INDIANA at (608) NEW YORK 8:05 E ESPN
Knicks fans are wondering where this team has been all season. New York has won six straight (5-1 ATS) and in thoroughly dominating fashion, with the average scoring margin a whopping 17.8 points a contest. The Knicks offense has been clicking but so has the defense in allowing just 96.6 PPG and facing defensive-minded Indiana, those betting basketball have moved the total two lower to 192.5. While there is certainly logic in this thinking, the Pacers are 21-12 OVER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and New York is 9-1 OVER home revenging a loss when the opponent scored 100 or more points this season. SWM Take – Play Over
CBB – (623) IOWA vs. (624) TENNESSEE 9:10 E truTV
Initially, Tennessee being a two-favorite over Iowa was well justified, especially with the Hawkeyes scuffling at 1-6 and 0-7 ATS to close the season. This week, national reports announced Iowa coach Fran McCaffrey’s son is having surgery to remove a thyroid tumor today, just hours before their First Four game with Tennessee. While it is purely speculation to say bettors have been influenced by this news, it is hard to comprehend why Iowa has been flipped to a two-point favorite, especially when you consider less than 45 percent of wagers placed are on Iowa. Personally, I see too many factors to account for now. SWM Take – Pass
CBB – (627) IONA at (628) LOUISIANA TECH 7:30 E ESPN3.com
Both these teams reached their conference tournament finals but came up one game short of reaching the Big Dance. Iona comes into this contest ranked fourth in the country in scoring at 83.5 PPG, however, Louisiana Tech is not too far behind at 81 PPG (15th) and they are a sparkling 13-1 at home with a 6-3 spread record. Hoops players jumped on this one and elevated the Bulldogs from -7.5 to -9.5. Louisiana Tech knows how to handle weak defensive teams which force 12 or fewer turnovers and are 8-2 ATS against this type of competition. SWM Take – Lean Louisiana Tech
NHL – (51) TAMPA BAY at (52) TORONTO 7:05 E SS, TSN
Tampa Bay in the verge of their longest winning streak since December at three in a row, but four would have to come at a place they have not fared well. The Lightning have dropped their past four trips to Toronto, being outscored 17-9, yet hockey bettors are ignoring the numbers and changed Tampa Bay from a +105 underdog to a -120 favorite. The Maple Leafs are 8-2 on home ice after two or more defeats and the Lightning are 4-17 off three or more consecutive home wins. SWM Take – Toronto wins
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
NBA ATS Trend
Miami is 14-3 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points the last two seasons.
CBB ATS Trend
Cleveland State is 16-1 ATS versus defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers a game this season.
NHL Money Line Trend
St. Louis is 20-2 against division opponents this season.