Definitely have seen some real big numbers alterations in college football for this upcoming week. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (158-117 L56D)
CFB – (319) MIAMI-FL at (320) GEORGIA TECH 7:30 ET ESPN2
While the Hurricanes defense played significantly better in defeating Duke 22-10 last week, football bettors look at Georgia Tech and see a running team and they had watched Nebraska run the ball down Miami’s throat on the road and moved the Yellow Jackets from +1 to -2.5. One difference is the Hurricanes play Georgia Tech annually and is 5-0 SU and ATS since 2009. Betting Trend – 58 percent backing Miami- FL.
CFB – (327) SMU at (328) EAST CAROLINA 12:00 ET ESPNU
Normally I would not include a spread that is at 40.5 points, however, that is up five points from oddsmakers starting number, which drew my attention. From a handicapping perspective this is as simple as it gets. East Carolina averages 43.2 PPG and SMU averages three PPG. The Pirates are 7-0 ATS against teams which win less than 25 percent of the time. Betting Trend – No surprise, 98 percent backing East Carolina
CFB – (335) KANSAS at (336) WEST VIRGINIA 4:00 ET FSN Affiliates
Charley Weis is out, making a disjointed football program even more rudderless. With QB Clint Trickett, West Virginia has shown to have a very good offense that is averaging 37.5 PPG, while Kansas goes into survivor mode for the rest of season and is at 15.2 PPG. The Mountaineers have been juiced from -23.5 to -26 and the Jayhawks are 10-23 ATS as underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points. Betting Trend – 94 percent backing West Virginia
CFB – (337) TOLEDO at (338) WESTERN MICHIGAN 7:00 ET W-ESPN
Those betting football have confidently taken Western Michigan from a 10-point home underdog past two key numbers down to +5. Not sure I understand completely since Toledo has thus far still played well despite losing key offensive people and they are 4-0 and 3-1 ATS against the Broncos the past four seasons. Betting Trend –92 percent backing Western Michigan
CFB – (379) BAYLOR at (380) TEXAS 3:30 ET ABC/W-ESPN
Not sure why Texas players are calling out Baylor as not a good football team because football bettors certainly think the Bears are significantly better than the Longhorns, moving them four points to -16.5. The question is how a depleted Horns offense keeps pace with Baylor, unless they can figure out some way to make this a lower scoring contest. The Bears are 9-2 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half of last game. Betting Trend – 93 percent backing Baylor
CFB – (385) TEXAS A&M at (386) MISSISSIPPI STATE 12:00 ET ESPN
Considering the anticipated amount of bets that will be placed on all the huge SEC games this weekend, Mississippi State moving from +2.5 to -1.5 is seismic. Nonetheless, this should not come as a shock if you have seen both teams this season, the Bulldogs are a solid crew and if they can match the Aggies in confidence, they will send Texas A&M to 13-31 ATS as road underdogs. Betting Trend – 61 percent backing Texas A&M
CFB – (407) UAB at (408) WESTERN KENTUCKY 7:00 ET
A quick glimpse did not show any injuries in trying to understand why Western Kentucky would fall four points to -9. With even a little defense, the Hilltoppers would have gone 3-0 on their road trip instead of 1-2. I will agree UAB probably should not have been a 13-point underdog, because why they lost to FIU 34-20 by committing six turnovers. The Blazers however are an unsightly 2-10 ATS after playing a home game the last three seasons. Betting Trend – 91 percent backing UAB
Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends
MLB Money Line Trend
Oakland is 4-15 on the road when the total is seven or less this season.
MLB Totals Trend
Kansas City is 14-5 UNDER at home when the total is seven or less this season.
CFB ATS Trend
Coach Pat Fitzgerald of Northwestern is 1-11 ATS in home games vs. defensive teams who allow 17 or less points a game.
CFB Totals Trend
Coach Mike Gundy of Oklahoma State is 14-1 OVER in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards in two consecutive outings.