Sports Watch Monitor CFB Line Moves and Top Trends for the Weekend


The college football weekend has already started. Besides the three big line moves we have since Tuesday to report on along with updates of previous matchups, we note Georgia Tech, USC and Navy are all falling faves, with Texas A&M blowing up as a chalky choice. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (120-94 L49D)

CFB – (111) INDIANA at (112) BOWLING GREEN  12:00 ET  ESPNU

The MAC is never going to get the top notch talent it needs to compete regularly with bigger schools and has to settle. Though Indiana is certainly no powerhouse, they can score points. Based on last year’s stunning 42-10 whipping in Bloomington and the belief is the gap has not been closed enough and the Hoosiers have rose from -5 to -8. Update Forgot to mention another reason for this line move is Falcons QB Matt Johnson is out. The number has been steady all week and 70 percent are on the Hoosiers. SWM Take Indiana covers

CFB – (121) KENT STATE at (122) OHIO STATE  12:00 ET  ABC/ESPN2

Ohio State has played good football for about three quarters of the eight they have been scheduled to. Nonetheless, that is three more than Kent State. With the Buckeyes frustrated, the thought is they want to pound on somebody and the Golden Flashes turn out to be the perfect foil. Ohio State opened at -29 and went to -32 and they are 33-17 ATS after one or more SU defeats. Update I have seen a half-point bump to 32.5 and 84 percent are taking the home favorite. SWM Take Ohio State covers

CFB – (123) EASTERN MICHIGAN at (124) OLD DOMINION  6:00 ET  Local Cable  *NEW*

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.comOnce the number on this contest started moving, it was like Val Kilmer at Cici’s Pizza buffet. This might be Old Dominion’s first year in D-1 football, but they come with ample street cred especially on offense, averaging better than 37 PPG since 2009. With Eastern Michigan last having a winning season in 1995, football bettors has no problem moving the line from -14 to -18.5 and backing the Monarchs. Did ODU make the Top 5 list for best placed below? SWM TakeOld Dominion covers

CFB – (135) IOWA STATE at (136) IOWA 3:30 ET  ESPN

In the battle of Iowa, the Hawkeyes squeaked by Ball State, while the Cyclones failed to put away Kansas State in Ames. Iowa is a diminishing favorite, down to -10.5 from -13 and for good reason. The Hawkeyes are only 3-11 ATS as home favorites the past three years and are 3-8 ATS at Kinnick Stadium against their in-state rivals. Update Iowa actually fell to -10 on Tuesday night, but as of Thursday the buyback has been consistent and the Hawkeyes are now at -12.5, though almost 70 percent are on Iowa State. Wise guys coming late? SWM TakeLean Iowa State

CFB – (149) KANSAS at (150) DUKE  3:30 ET  FSN Affiliates *NEW*

Somebody must like Charley Weis more than David Cutcliffe as a football coach, because offhand it is hard to comprehend why Kansas would be dumped from +17.5 to +14. Granted, Weis has recruited a number of good offensive players, but is wholly lacking in other areas by a wide margin. With Kansas 0-6 ATS in non-conference games the last three seasons, I will support the Dukies. SWM TakeDuke covers

CFB – (171) WAKE FOREST at (172) UTAH STATE  7:00 ET  CBSSN

Both teams bounced back from opening game disappointments with victories versus inferior competition. Neither squad has covered the spread, but the wagering public likes Utah State’s chances at home, lifting them from -11 to -14. Based on recent returns, you have to like the Aggies chances being 15-4 ATS as favorites. Update After sitting dormant for a couple days, the money is against pouring on Utah State and they are up to -15.5 with 84 percent of bettors in their corner. SWM TakeLean Utah State

CFB – (189) UCLA vs. (190) TEXAS 8:00 ET   FOX

UCLA BruinsHere we have two floundering clubs in need of a signature performance. UCLA has not come close to covering two spreads of around 20 points and Texas just got ambushed in Austin by BYU. The Bruins have the talent edge headed to Arlington and been shifted from -6 to -8. Let’s see if they play to talent level or continue to underachieve. UCLA is 3-1 ATS in this series. Update – Most Vegas books checked are still at 8, however key offshore spots have Texas at -7. Only 10 percent of wagers placed are on the Longhorns. SWM TakeUCLA covers

CFB – (149) NEVADA at (150) ARIZONA  10:00 ET  Pac-12N  *NEW*

Nevada stunned Washington State at home 24-13 as three-point home underdogs last week, but are not getting any support taking on another Pac-12 team, this time on the road. Arizona off their non-cover at UTSA has risen from -15 to -18 and you can be certain those betting football do not think the Wolf Pack can keep pace with coach Rick Rodriguez’s diversified offense away from home. While we agree with the direction of the line move based on talent, the Wildcats are 11-24 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. SWM Take Lean Arizona

Top 5 Betting Favorites (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 5-4) – Texas A&M, Old Dominion, Arizona State, Boise State and Nebraska

Top 5 Betting Underdogs (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 2-8) – Georgia Southern, UMass, Arkansas, Iowa State and East Carolina

Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends


Florida Atlantic is 9-0 ATS off a road loss the last three seasons.

CFB Totals Trend

Florida International is 10-0 UNDER as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points.

CFB First Half Trend

Arkansas is 0-8 after gaining 6.25 or more yards a play in their previous game the last two seasons.


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