Sports Watch Monitor CFB Line Moves and Top Trends for the Weekend


Besides the line moves and updates we have listed below, Southern Miss and Rice have been falling favorites, while to the surprise of nobody, Texas A&M is up 4.5 to -33.5 and could go higher. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (130-105 L52D)

CFB – Friday (305) CONNECTICUT at (308) SOUTH FLORIDA  8:00 ET  ESPN2  *NEW*

This AAC contest is for serious bettors only, because the casual football bettor is headed out on the town ready to brag about all the winners he has coming this weekend over beers. Because these are two offensively-challenged teams with few resources to find the end zone, the total has tumbled from 48 to 44. South Florida is only scoring more than 20 points a game because they hung 36 on West Carolina, (yea, THAT West Carolina) and the Bulls are 12-3 UNDER in conference games the last two years. SWM Take Play Under

CFB – (307) INDIANA at (308) MISSOURI  4:00 ET  SECN

Missouri has played so well in destroying Toledo and Central Florida; it caused a raised eyebrow to see the Tigers sinking from -16 to -13.5 against Indiana. The Hoosiers can move the ball and score with their offense, but they allowed 571 yards in the loss to Bowling Green. Indiana is 0-8 ATS after allowing 525 yards in last outing. Update – As of today, just a slight buyback on Mizzou to -14 because of fears of lookahead by the Tigers going to South Carolina next week. This entire line move is sharp money-based with 91 percent supporting Missouri. SWM Take Lean Missouri


Penn State seems to be living a charmed life to have a 3-0 record. Their first two wins they had a -5 turnover margin all together and yet found two victories and last week they had a +4 TO margin and somehow hung on the defeat Rutgers 13-10. With Massachusetts off two contests they should have won, the Nittany Lions have been dumped from -29.5 to -26. UpdatePenn State back a point to -27, though just 40 percent of bettors are in their corner. SWM Take Lean Penn State

CFB – (311) MARSHALL at (312) AKRON  2:00 ET  W-ESPN

The Thundering Herd is weekly being considered as team outside the Power 5 conferences which could post a 12-0 regular season. Marshall has a dynamic offense and improved defense from prior years. So why would they be a falling road favorite from -12.5 to -9.5? Simple under coach John, “Doc” Holliday the Herd is 1-9 ATS as a road favorite. UpdateFor the most part, the 9.5 has stuck, with a few sportsbooks a half point either way. Nearly two-thirds are running with the Thundering Herd.  SWM Take Marshall covers

CFB – (325) BOWLING GREEN at (326) WISCONSIN  12:00 ET  ESPN2

Despite Bowling Green’s upset of Indiana with a backup quarterback, those betting football are not taking the bait and have sent Wisconsin from -21 to -26.5. In that game the Hoosiers ran for 235 yards and everyone knows the Badgers at home could put up 300-plus yards versus the Falcons. Wisconsin is 13-3 ATS at home when they rush for 250 to 300 yards. UpdateAbout three-quarters of books have gone to 27, with the rest holding steady. At this time 74 percent backing the Badgers. SWM Take Wisconsin covers

CFB – (329) ARMY at (330) WAKE FOREST 3:30 ET  W-ESPN

Wake Forest has no running game and is starting a freshman QB John Wolford. The lack of offense places Wolford in a no-win situation and because Army can control the ball with their running game, the Black Knights have been flipped from +1.5 to -2.5-point favorites. On major issue, Army is 1-11 ATS as road favorites. UpdateThis number has not budged and almost 70 percent are marching with Army. SWM TakeLean Wake Forest

CFB – (335) UTAH at (336) MICHIGAN  3:30 ET *NEW*  ABC/ESPN2

Michigan WolverinesThe world is down on Michigan and coach Brady Hoke is showing signs of cracking this week with mounting pressure. You can be sure he doesn’t have any Wolverine pictures of Jim Harbaugh in his office. Michigan is down three digits to -3.5 against Utah, who at least have looked good crushing two weaker opponents at home. For the Wolverines to keep the howling wolves at bay, they cannot continue to turn the ball over, seven in last two games, or they will seal their own fate. My guess is the Utes come in with a lot of confidence and they are 29-15 ATS off a bye week. Watch the line play in the first quarter, if one team has a decisive edge, might be worth second half play. SWM TakeSlight lean Michigan

CFB – (345) MID. TENNESSEE ST. at (346) MEMPHIS  7:00 ET  W-ESPN

Middle Tennessee State needs 3 OT’s to hold off Western Kentucky 50-47. Contests that last that long are taxing mentally and physically and now the Blue Raiders have to go on the road and take on a Memphis squad who is fresh coming off a bye. The Tigers have leaped from -7.5 to -12. Memphis has not been this large a favorite in six years. UpdateNo change since Tuesday, as 76 percent prefer Memphis. SWM Take Middle Tennessee State covers


Because Georgia Southern was oh so close to upsetting N.C. State and Georgia Tech on the road, those betting football had no problem flying the Eagles from +2.5 to -3 at South Alabama. Georgia Southern has the No.2 rushing offense in the country even against that level of competition and I agree they should win and cover stepping down in class. SWM Take Georgia Southern covers

CFB – (389) OKLAHOMA at (390) WEST VIRGINIA 7:30 ET  FOX

The Sooners have lost their leading rusher, are 0-3 ATS against West Virginia and face a hot Mountaineers offense on the road in prime time engineered by QB Clint Trickett. All those factors are playing directly into Oklahoma tumbling from -12 to -7.5 at Morgantown. However, seems like an over-reaction and watch the line go back up by game time. UpdateStill mostly 7.5, but don’t be surprised if Oklahoma money starts coming in to raise the number. Presently 66 percent on the Sooners. SWM Take Oklahoma covers

CFB – (391) CALIFORNIA at (392) ARIZONA 10:00 ET  PAC-12N  *NEW*

This Pac-12 number has been falling like the number of people attending Floyd Mayweather fights, as Arizona has crumbled from a -12.5 point home favorite to -7.5. It is well known in handicapping circles the Wildcats are a lousy wager in Tucson doling out points with a 6-16 ATS record as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. With California showing a great deal of improvement already and 5-2 ATS in recent visits to southern Arizona, the money is following the Bears. This was a good wager, but the value has been sucked dry. SWM Take Lean California

Top 5 Betting Favorites (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 7-7) – Texas A&M, Duke, Oregon, Missouri and Colorado

Top 5 Betting Underdogs (In Order by Number of Bets Placed, Record 7-8) – Clemson, Eastern Michigan, Utah, Maryland and California

Sports Watch Monitor Weighty Trends


Rice is 17-2 ATS at vs. passing teams averaging 250 or more  yards a game.

CFB Totals Trend

Marshall is 9-0 OVER after gaining 525 or more total yards over their last three games since 2012.

CFB First Half Trend

Navy is 2-15 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive Under’s.


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