Sportsbooks have increased their handle in football dramatically over the years by satisfying the appetite of those making sports picks with more parlay and teaser options for those seeking bigger score.
What this means is you can theoretically reduce risk of multiple bets by placing one wager and if you are correct, depending on the number of games you have chosen, the potential payout is attractive for the outlay.
Teasers have gained in popularity over the last several years as the bettor can now match the ‘point spread’ they prefer in choosing games, which reduces their risk with the different betting odds, yet adding risk by having to win more than one game.
Sportsbooks figured out a long time ago that most NFL bettors are quite confident, often delusional, and when it came to teaser cards in this case, if those placing NFL picks on these cards had four or five “sure winners”, they would be willing to risk one more game “having a strong feeling” and increasing their potential payouts. However, every bettor has cards with five out of six winners, which in this case is a losing ticket.
All this has done for the most part is increase the sportsbooks profits. Most NFL football handicappers and sharp bettors used to eschew such plays, calling them “sucker bets”. However, with more progressive thinking, most bettors that are paying attention, figured out that if you bet into key numbers on teasers, you can build in an edge on where the numbers typically fall and reduce risk.
Myself, a four-team six-point teaser is a comfortable choice most weeks, because finding six games with what seems to be favorable odds is possible and whittling down to four strengthens my chances of winning. And while you no longer get 4-to-1 odds on a six-point teaser, Heritagesports.eu comes the closest these days at +355 on a four-teamer.
Here are my choices for NFL Week 1.
New England -1
The big Thursday night opening game is full of intrigue with New England even more being under the glare of hot lights with Tom Brady just beating the NFL in Deflategate, but this was followed by an ESPN magazine article about Spygate, reporting many supposed ugly elements about the Patriots inner workings.
Whatever the story lines, we will take New England down to -1 at home, essentially meaning we just have to win the game. In the last 14 times the Super Bowl champion opened at home (Baltimore did not in 2013 because the Orioles would not move home game playing next door), only once has the defending champs lost outright, which was the 2012 New York Giants.