I’m like a lot of sports bettors today, angry, but for different reasons. The line shakers should have had a winning day, until the Cubs Carlos Marmol give up a grand salami walk-off bomb to Houston, costing them a totals winner. My beef today is what are sports bettors thinking today? I’ll give them a pass on moving Houston from a -130 favorite by the oddsmakers to -115 or less strictly because it’s the Astros and one other game, but two Line Moves stand out like Snookie in a bikini, are they nuts?
MLB – Minnesota at Detroit 7:05 EDT FSNO, FSD
The total on this AL Central showdown shifted from 9.5 to 9, which sounds pretty harmless, especially because Minnesota’s Carl Pavano (6-9, 4.55 ERA) has permitted only two earned runs in his last two starts (15 1/3 innings). But a closer look reveals the Twins starting pitcher has a 6.03 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break. Do his recent two starts suggest a turnaround or an anomaly? Next is Brad (used to be Big Bad, as in good) Penny. The former All-Star starter has an ERA of 8.81 (which would be his time running to first base if he batted) in his last three starts. In his career, Penny is 43-26 OVER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 and if you take the current earned run averages of both hurlers facing the opposite teams it comes out to 9.66, just for the time they have thrown in each encounter. What are bettors thinking? 3DW Position – Play Over
MLB – L.A. Dodgers at Milwaukee 8:10 EDT KCAL, FSWI
Milwaukee is a Major League best 46-15 at home and has won 14 of 15 at Miller Park, sending the fans home happy almost every night. In addition, the Brewers have pulled away in the NL Central with a Usain Bolt-like 18-2 spurt. With Zack Greinke (11-4, 4.08) 8-0 pitching in Brew Town (the Brewers are 10-0 in his starts), is it any wonder the Crew went from -185 to -200 or higher? 3DW Position – Milwaukee wins
MLB – Florida at Colorado 8:40 EDT FSFL, RT
Can somebody, anybody explain why Colorado went from a -110 to -125 or higher betting choice in this contest? Florida’s Ricky Nolasco (9-8, 3.72) is 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA in his last four outings and is a notorious sportsbook assassin in the role of road underdog, sporting a 12-3 record as a visiting pooch of +100 to +150 the last two seasons. (Marlins Record) The next piece of the puzzle is the Rockies Aaron Cook (2-7, 5.43), who has yet to win at Coors Field this season in six starts (neither has his team) and is 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA in his last three outings overall. For good measure, Cook has an ERA of 5.45 against the Marlins and is 3-9 in home games playing against a team with a losing record the last three seasons. (Rockies Record) 3DW Position – Florida wins
3DW Bonus Info
MLB Money Line Nugget
Jair Jurrjens and Atlanta are 17-3 against the ML in home games the last two seasons.
MLB Totals Nugget
Johnny Cueto and Cincinnati are 17-4 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5 since last year.
MLB Run Line Nugget
Aaron Cook and Colorado are 0-10 against the RL in home games vs. NL teams with a batting average of .255 or worse the last three seasons.