Let’s start the week with a full regalia of line moves in the NBA Playoffs, Stanley Cup Playoffs and baseball action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (44-35 of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here on tomorrow.
NBA – (529) TORONTO at (530) MIAMI 8:00 ET TNT
Without starting centers Hassan Whiteside and Jonas Valanciunas for rim protection, hoops players are wondering who will be there to stop forays into the paint by both teams and severely adjusted the totals from 187.5 to 192. This would certainly seem to affect both teams, but to say what the immediate implications would be for a single game are difficult to project. I would not be surprised to see the number fall somewhere in between the range of numbers and will ever so slightly nod to a lower score.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Under
MLB – (917) CLEVELAND at (918) HOUSTON 8:10 ET STO, ROOT-SW
Cleveland has won five of six, moved into second place in the AL Central and has their ace going tonight, yet is a tumbling road favorite from -135 to -115 or less in Houston. The Astros are finally showing they have a pulse in winning five of the past eight. Corey Kluber (2-3, 3.35 ERA) is a notoriously slow starter, but has given up only 12 hits and three earned runs in last three starts (24 innings). The big concern on Kluber and Cleveland is their 5-14 record when on the road. Houston’s Mike Fiers might have winning record, but that is about it. Backing the Astros comes with risks like 1-10 record after a win this season.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Cleveland
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland
MLB – (921) TAMPA BAY at (922) SEATTLE 10:10 ET SUN, ROOT-NW
Fascinating factors to contemplate why Seattle has fallen from -170 to -125 home favorites to Tampa Bay. Felix Hernandez (2-2, 2.21) is coming off his worst outing of the young season and while he does not throw as hard as he did five or more years ago, he is 6-0 with a 1.58 ERA in 10 home starts against Tampa Bay. Others see the Rays on four-game win streak and their starter Matt Moore is 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA in four career starts against the Mariners. However, if bettors want to penalize Hernandez, what about Moore, who is fresh off his worst-ever outing, surrendering seven runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings to the Dodgers. All the value now with M’s with King Felix 21-7 at home with a money line of -100 to -125. (Mariner’s Record)
Betting Trend – 87% backing Seattle
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Seattle
NHL – (71) DALLAS at (72) ST. LOUIS 8:05 ET NBCSN
St. Louis coach Ken Hitchcock no doubt has warned his players, Game 6 at home has to won on the ice, not on paper. The visiting team in the Blues and Dallas series has won three of five and that is on top of Chicago best of seven when the visitor took four of seven. Bettors are less concerned bumped up St. Louis from -150 to -160 or higher to take out the Stars. This will come down to the Blues defense being able to slow Dallas and they just might, being 13-4 off a road win scoring four or more goals this season.
Betting Trend – 91% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean St. Louis
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 81-88-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 59-49-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 140-133-2