Today for line moves we follow NBA and NHL playoff totals that are on the move plus three MLB games with the numbers twirling. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are winning consistently at 38-29, to see what we are thinking. See you back here on tomorrow.
NBA – (511) PORTLAND at (512) GOLDEN STATE 10:35 ET TNT
Though Portland scored 106 points against Golden State, 33 of them came in the final quarter when the game had already been determined. The Warriors brought a great deal of defensive energy in the first quarter to hold the Trail Blazers to 17 points and built an immediate 11-point margin. Though the contest ended up as OVER with 210 total, the oddsmakers adjustment to 214 has been lowered to 212.5. With these teams having gone OVER in 10 of last 12 meetings with or without Mr. Curry, still prefer larger number.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (901) CHIC. CUBS at (902) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET WGN-CH, ROOT-P
The question in any game the Cubs Jake Arrieta (5-0, 1.00 ERA) pitches anymore is how will the other team score? Also, Joe Maddon’s nattily-attired crew is averaging over 6 runs a game, is this what they are capable of any contest? Evidently one of those aspects comes into play tonight as the Cubs and Pirates total is up from 6.5 to 7. With Chicago a large road favorite, they are 11-3 OVER as a favorite of -150 or more this season.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (925) L.A. DODGERS at (926) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET SNLA, SUN
After a 1-6 homestand, the Dodgers are hopeful a cross-country trip to Florida will help them continue solid 8-5 road record. While L.A. has their fingers crossed this will occur, the numbers suggest otherwise with Tampa Bay lifted from -115 to -145 or higher. With Los Angeles having scored just 1.7 runs per game on the homestand and taking on left-hander Matt Moore (1-2, 5.66) for the Rays, their 2.9 RPG against lefties plays into this equation. Concerning Dodger start Scott Kazmir (1-2, 5.76) , he and the teams he’s pitched for since last year are 0-10 as a road underdog of +100 or higher.
Betting Trend – 68% backing L.A. Dodgers
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Tampa Bay
MLB – (927) L.A.A. ANGELS at (928) MILWAUKEE 8:10 ET FSW, FSWI
Baseball bettors are showing little faith in Nick Tropeano (1-0, 2.11) and the Angels from Anaheim, given the circumstances. The Halos have been lowered from -135 to -122. Last night Milwaukee beat L.A.A. 8-5 for the first time ever (nine tries) at Miller Park and after scoring 14 times on the Sunday, the Brewers offense is rolling. Also, the Angels have lost eight of 11 away outings and the thought process is their desultory offense which is at 3.6 RPG, will not fare well against 31-year old journeyman Junior Guerra, with the demotion of struggling Taylor Jungmann. No easy call.
Betting Trend – 90% backing L.A.A. Angels
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean L.A.A. Angels
NHL – (21) DALLAS at (22) ST. LOUIS 9:35 ET NBCSN
The first contest of this series was low scoring the second was not. The betting trend is towards more of what we saw in 4-3 win for St. Louis and the total has been juiced from Ov5 (-125) to -140. If the Blues expect to win on home ice, they cannot let Dallas dictate tempo and move to 9-2 OVER after losing in OT.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 79-81-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 56-45-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 131-127-2