The game one rout by San Antonio over Oklahoma City has caused change in the total, not on the side. In other line moves, we have three baseball games that have significant line moves. We did pass on the Mets and Cardinals as falling faves since they were so large, but it is worth watching to see if the line moves would turn out to be true. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are winning consistently at 36-26, to see what we are thinking. See you back here on tomorrow.
NBA – (509) OKLAHOMA CITY at (510) SAN ANTONIO 9:35 ET TNT
As noted on my twitter account, when Chris Webber on TNT is calling out Oklahoma City for some the worst pick and roll defense he’s seen, you know the Thunder were not guarding anyone in 124-92 rout since Webber was not on any NBA all-defensive teams. Evidently bettors think OKC will come more ready to play after being humiliated or San Antonio cannot possibly shoot over 60 percent again and have lowered the total from 202.5 to 201. The Thunder has not shot better than 41.2 percent in four visits to San Antonio and does not figure too here either. The Spurs will not be as hot this time, but are still 15-5 OVER at home off a home blowout win by 20 points or more the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (953) SAN FRANCISCO at (954) CINCINNATI 7:05 ET CSN-BA, FSOH
Johnny Cueto (4-1, 2.65 ERA) return to the Queen City where he has spent most of his career. No doubt the right-hander will have extra adrenaline pumping to face his old team, but they too have something to prove and San Francisco has slid from -170 to -150 favorites. Cincinnati ended six-game losing streak yesterday in part to four Pittsburgh errors, however, it does not change the fact the Reds are 4-18 off a one run win over a division rival and 3-18 as a home underdog of +125 or more.
Betting Trend – 87% backing San Francisco
Doug’s VPID Take – San Francisco wins
MLB – (959) COLORADO at (960) SAN DIEGO 10:10 ET ROOT-RM, FSD (side and total)
The third overall pick in 2013 draft, Jon Gray (0-0, 11.42), has been brutal in two starts, but he is being given the benefit of the doubt at San Diego after the Rockies swept Arizona on the road. Colorado opened as +125 road underdogs and have been pushed to -115 favorites versus James Shields (0-4, 3.55) and the Padres. Shields have four quality starts this season, but his teammates have compiled six runs in his five outings. Nolan Arenado is 10 for 22 with four homers in his last five games and against Shields is 12 for 23 with four homers. The Pads righty has not been a stopper and is 3-13 at home after a loss the last three seasons. (Team’s Record) The total has dipped from 7.5 to 7, yet Shields is 11-3 OVER at Petco Park when the total is 7 or less.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Colorado and 54% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Colorado, Play Over
MLB – (967) L.A.A. ANGELS at (968) MILWAUKEE 7:20 ET FSW, FSWI
The analytics crowd hates Jered Weaver (3-0, 3.86) of the Angels and has for years. He does not throw hard enough, strikeouts are in decline and to their way of thinking they should never win. While the angular Halos right-hander is not what he used to be, he’s not dumb and still knows how to pitch even with declining skills. Baseball bettors are not saying if they think he will win or lose, but matched against Milwaukee’s Jimmy Nelson (3-2, 3.16), they have bumped the total from 8.5 to 9 in Brew Town. The Crew has history against the American League being a former member and is 14-3 OVER at Miller Park versus AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game since 2014.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 78-79-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 54-45-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 128-125-2