For today’s line moves, we have three MLB encounters, plus a Game 7 East Finals favorite that is growing like an Oklahoma City lead over Golden State. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (72-56) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (953) ST. LOUIS at (954) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET FSMW, MASN
Washington swept earlier series this season at St. Louis and there are those who think the Nationals can continue winning ways. Washington has been sent from -120 to -140 favorites, despite the fact the Cardinals Mike Leake (3-3, 4.07 ERA) has been almost impossible to score on in last three games with 0.86 ERA. Both clubs come in off series losses to division rivals, but we like the Cards here, since they are 23-5 after a one run loss the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean St. Louis
MLB – (955) MILWAUKEE at (956) ATLANTA 7:10 ET FSWI, SPSO
It seems impossible a major league team could have a 2-19 home record, yet that is exactly what the Braves record is. It is a two-pronged problem for Atlanta, not being able to score (2.9 RPG) and not being able to stop anyone with opponents averaging 5.1 RPG at Turner Field. For the final contest of this series, the attention has turn to the total, which is up from 7.5 to 8. If Atlanta is going to finally score a few runs, this would seem to be the right pitcher to do so on, as Milwaukee’s Wily Peralta (2-5, 6.99) is not doing the job. Matt Wisler (2-3, 2.93) could limit the Brewers, but Atlanta is 11-1 OVER versus a starting pitcher who gives up seven or more hits a start the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (957) TORONTO at (958) N.Y. YANKEES 4:05 ET RSN, YES
It is the rubber match of the series and in spite of J.A. Happ (5-2, 3.43) and CC Sabathia (3-2, 3.41) both in recent good form, the total has been lifted from 8.5 to 9. Not sure I’m on board with this line movement. Consider Happ is 18-7 UNDER against teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 2014 and Toronto is 9-1 UNDER in road games versus an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.15 or better this season.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NHL – (25) TAMPA BAY at (26) PITTSBURGH 8:05 ET NBCSN
Think about this, prior to these East Finals, Pittsburgh was only a -200 or larger money line favorite nine times and tonight will be the third time in this series alone they will be that large a favorite. Considering where we are on the calendar, it is hard to imagine a Game 7 having such a large figure and it has been growing since the end of Game 6. The Penguins started at -200 and now are up to -230 over Tampa Bay. With Pitt 9-1 at home game off a road win this season, difficult to disagree with the current number.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Pittsburgh
Doug’s VPID Take – Pittsburgh wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 91-100-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 74-61-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 168-154-2