Rather quiet on the wagering from for a Monday, but we still found four line moves, though one will need some explaining. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (66-54) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (905) CINCINNATI at (906) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET FSOH, SNLA
If Clayton Kershaw (6-1, 1.67 ERA) facing a team that has lost seven straight and 10 of 11 sounds like a mismatch, you are not alone. Los Angeles has blown up from a -350 to -390 favorite against Cincinnati, which in reality is not that big a deal. What caught my eye was the run line (-1.5) not keeping pace in this instance, only up from -145 to -150. Normally we don’t follow this, but it worth noting only because the Reds have the worst bullpen in baseball by a wide margin with an ERA of 6.47. (Texas is 29th at 5.43 ERA) Giving -150 on a run line hardly seems like value, but it makes the most sense.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Dodger on RL
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Dodgers RL
MLB – (909) L.A.A. ANGELS at (910) TEXAS 8:05 ET FS1
Though the Angels just lost series to Baltimore, they have won seven of 10 and have been taken from +110 to around -105 area. This would appear some baseball bettors have less faith in Derek Holland (3-3, 5.63) compared to the Halos Nick Tropeano (2-2, 3.30), who has limited opponents to two runs or less in six of his eight starts. Nonetheless, the Rangers are 14-7 at home and 9-0 with an on-base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games. Numbers could change if Mike Trout is pulled off lineup card with hammy.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Texas
Doug’s VPID Take – Texas wins
MLB – (913) KANSAS CITY at (914) MINNESOTA 8:05 ET FSKC,FSNO
Outside of a 5-run eighth inning on Saturday, Minnesota has scored 11 total runs in recent 52 other innings since May 17th. Match those figures with Ian Kennedy (4-3, 3.24) having a better than expected season to date with the Royals and the total on the Central showdown has dipped from 8.5 to 8. It would seem how K.C. handles Ricky Nolasco (1-2, 4.74) would determine how the total will go, since the right-hander has a 6.21 ERA in his last five starts. Found this system: When the total is 8 to 8.5 and AL road team scores 4.5 or less runs a game, against a team with a mediocre bullpen (ERA of 4.50 or higher), after allowing three runs or less in three straight contests, the OVER is 35-11 since 1997.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (921) CLEVELAND at (922) CHIC. WHITE SOX 5:10 ET STO, CSN+
It is the first of two in the Windy City with another AL Central showcase, with the two leaders of the division. Though Mike Clevinger (0-0, 6.75) is making just his second major league start, he and Cleveland are drawing the support over Mat Latos (5-1, 4.00) and the White Sox, since Latos has 7.84 ERA in his last four starts and Chicago is 3-8 in last 11. No strong feeling on this matchup, but did find the Pale Hose are 8-1 after four straight games where they had seven or less hits since 2014.
Betting Trend – 82% backing White Sox
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean White Sox
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 91-97-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 70-60-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 164-150-2