We are buzzing along here this month and two of the line moves are going down a familiar path this week. The Chicago Cubs are now baseball’s most public wager and at last look were up 40 cents as road favorites. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (62-51) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (707) TORONTO at (708) CLEVELAND 8:35 ET ESPN
In the opener of the East Finals, we started at 202.5 and that total fell five points by game time. With Cleveland toppling Toronto 115-84, whether you won or lost depended on when you purchased the total. Oddsmakers sent out an even lower number at 197 and that has been adjusted upward to 198.5. The Cavaliers have now averaged 114 PPG in the past three home games with the Raptors and this season, if there last victory was by 20 or points in Cleveland, they have averaged 114.7 PPG. This goes over 200 total points.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (907) COLORADO at (908) ST. LOUIS 7:15 ET ROOT-RM, FSMW
Did not really want to keep going on with this NL series, but this had largest line move outside of the Cubs and once again not much faith placed in St. Louis. The Cardinals have gone from -160 to -140, as their offense has gotten stuck with three runs in the series and takes on Jon Gray (1-1, 4.71 ERA), who is figuring out how to attack big league hitters in his second year and has a 1.80 ERA this month in three starts. Michael Wacha (2-4, 3.23) is the Redbirds hurler and his club is 26-8 at home after a win by two runs or less the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 93% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis wins
MLB – (917) N.Y. YANKEES at (918) OAKLAND 10:05 ET YES, CSN-BA
With Oakland sweep of Texas and winning of five of six, baseball bettors are combining that number with the Yankees unsightly 5-12 road record and have flipped the A’s from +100 to -118. Though New York won at Arizona last night, they still are averaging a mere 2.8 RPG on the road and are being outscored by humongous 1.8 RPG in the traveling grays. However, Ivan Nova (2-1, 3.70) has been about average in his first two starts of the season, which is more than you can say for Kendall Graveman (1-5, 5.84), who has posted a 9.31 ERA in last four outings. Off Oakland 8-1 lassoing of the Rangers yesterday and Graveman’s ineffectiveness, hard to overlook the A’s are 0-8 at home after a win by six runs or more since last season.
Betting Trend – 92% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New York
MLB – (921) L.A. DODGERS at (922) L.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET SNLA, FSW
Maybe the Dodgers are better than 21-20, but bettors believe by the end of the day they will be a .500 club and will have lost I-5 Freeway Series to the Angels. The team from Anaheim has won two of three this week and been shoved from -108 to -120, with an alarming 10 players now on the DL with catcher Geovany Soto the latest victim. Having lost 8-1 at the Big A, teams like the Dodgers revenging a road loss of six runs or more, with pitcher working on five or six days, rest are 110-190 since 2012.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Angels
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Angels
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 89-97-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 66-59-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 160-147-2