The focus for the weekend line moves is baseball with one NBA Playoff contest. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (54-43 of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here on Monday.
NBA – (953) TORONTO at (954) MIAMI 8:05 ET ESPN
It is do or die for Miami in series with Toronto. The Raptors have done a very good job in slowing the Heat down, keeping them to 80 or fewer attempts after Miami had 89 shots in the series opener. If you follow this theory and believe the reason the Heat have lost three of last four to Toronto, than the Raptors could be close out the series since the total has tumbled from 190 to 188. Seemingly, Miami’s only chance is to speed up the game and they are 19-8 OVER at home when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (909) N.Y. METS at (910) COLORADO 8:40 ET SNY, ROOT-RM
Matt Harvey (3-4, 4.50 ERA) has been coming around for the Mets, permitting seven runs in past three starts, covering 17 2/3 innings. His one downfall has been the gopher-ball, allowing one in each contest. Baseball bettors are not trusting of him and New York, even against Colorado young pitcher who is finding his way. The Mets have slide from -145 road favorites to -115 and will be facing Jon Gray (0-1, 5.40), who posted the best start of his brief career with seven one-hit innings in Saturday’s 2-1 loss at San Francisco. Wherever this number lands, it would appear to suit New York who is 32-12 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 96% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins
MLB – (913) ST. LOUIS at (914) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET FSMW, SNLA
Though Dodger Stadium is hardly Coors Field, containing St. Louis in the traveling grays could be an issue for some Los Angeles hurlers. The Cardinals are 10-6 on the road and its offense is among best at 6.8 runs per contest in away outings. Conversely, the Dodgers are scuffling at Chavez Ravine at 7-10 and its manager Dave Roberts is seeking any solution to improve the second-worst home scoring team in baseball with L.A. at 2.8 RPG. With these factors and Michael Wacha (2-3, 3.12) going against Ross Stripling (0-2, 3.82), stunned to see this go from a Pick to Los Angeles at -125. The Redbirds have won 10 of 14 meetings and the home team is 7-17 in white uni’s with a money line of -100 to -125 the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 86-92-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 64-54-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 150-142-2
MLB – CHIC. WHITE SOX (-110) at N.Y. YANKEES (-110) – Series Betting
The first place White Sox have opened up as -140 or higher road favorites in the Bronx over the last place New York Yankees. Being able to send Chris Sale and Jose Quintana out first has a lot to do with these odds, especially since Chicago is 13-1 when they have taken the ball in 2016. The Yanks will be favored in Sunday’s contest with Masahiro Tanaka, but it could well be too late for New York to capture series then.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Chicago at -110
MLB – OAKLAND (+130) at TAMPA BAY (-150) – Series Betting
If I choose to, I could beef up my record for these series picks taking obvious choices, but that is not fair to you the reader and I am either looking for meaningful series or competitive ones like this. Oakland enters this series having lost nine of 10 and would seem to be an easy play against choice. The A’s trio of Rich Hill, Kendall Gravemen and Sonny Gray matchup close to even with Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore and Drew Smyly, suggesting it comes down to clutch hitting and the bullpens. I could see Oakland finally playing better and taking this one.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Oakland at +130
MLB – TORONTO (-140) at TEXAS (+120) – Series Betting
When I first saw this line I thought it was mistake. My thought was Martin Perez could handle R.A. Dickey in series opener and Colby Lewis would compete with Marco Estrada in Arlington for middle game. The one real disadvantage for the Rangers is the series finale with Aaron Sanchez vs. Cesar Ramos. The Blue Jays were 3-1 over Texas earlier this month at home and are 6-2 as visitors lately against the Rangers, but the Texas offense has been solid and I can see them winning this series.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Texas at +120