If you are a regular reader of this sports betting information, you have realized for some time now most of the early line moves of the day are totals, not sides in basketball. Today we actually have two sides to talk about and we would have had three, with Pittsburgh going from -1.5 to -4 against Syracuse, but we could not fit that in for our deadlines. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are on sweet 29-16 run, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (501) MIAMI at (502) MILWAUKEE 8:05 ET ESPN
Remember when coach Erik Spoelstra was just lucky to have the Big 3 in Miami and nobody was sure if he was even an adequate head coach. With the Heat on a 14-5 tear and one of the best defensive teams in the league, you don’t hear those thoughts anymore. Though Milwaukee has very talented young players, they have not meshed together this season and only average 99.2 PPG. This combination has helped send the total from 202 to 199. We concur with Miami 11-2 UNDER away when playing with two days rest and the Bucks are 11-0 UNDER versus teams making 46 percent or more of their shots in the second half of the season the last three years.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NBA – (515) NEW YORK at (516) PHOENIX 9:05 ET MSG, FSAZ
Have to think this is the low ebb of the Knicks season, going from -3 point favorite against Phoenix to +1.5 point road underdogs. Maybe nobody was giving the Suns hint of being a qualified opponent, but they have won and covered past three of five. As bad as New York has been playing, this is only the third time Phoenix has been a favorite in 2016 (28 games) and they have lost outright to both the L.A. Lakers and Brooklyn. With the Suns 3-13 ATS versus teams who average seven or less steals a game in the second half of the season since last year, we’ll side with Knickerbockers in a smallish way.
Betting Trend – 85% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New York
CBB – (525) FLORIDA STATE vs. (526) VIRGINIA TECH 9:30 ET ESPN2
The general wisdom in ACC country is Florida State has underachieved most of the season with a largely veteran cast at 19-12 (12-14 ATS). Off three convincing victories and covers, the Seminoles might be reaching their potential, finally, and have been elevated from -2.5 to -4.5 against a dangerous Virginia Tech crew. The Hokies are on 5-0 SU and ATS tear and were highly competitive as 14-4 ATS ACC record shows. With the total at 147.5, that would tend to favor Virginia Tech and the Noles are 6-15 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 the past three seasons.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Virginia Tech
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Virginia Tech
CBB – (537) TCU vs. (538) TEXAS TECH 9:30 ET ESPNU
TCU has not been a very good shooting team outside Fort Worth, scoring only 61.5 PPG and converting on just 38.9 percent of attempts. It’s not like the Horned Frogs are super at home either at just under 42 percent. With more of the same expected from TCU, the total has tumbled from 138 to 135 or less depending on the sportsbook. However, both meetings were OVER’s this season and if you dig into common opponents for each Big 12 squad, the average total score for both teams was in the 140’s. Let’s go with lack of defense rules.
Betting Trend – 90% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 31-30
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 18-16-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 47-45-1