On to today’s line moves it was a tossup between NBA total involving the 76ers or Vegas 16 semi-final game and we went the college route today. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are on nice 58-46 run, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (767) OKLAHOMA CITY at (768) DETROIT 7:35 ET FSOK, FSD
With Oklahoma City having won eight in a row and the average total score of those victories being 217.3 points a game, my eyebrows were raised to see the total sinking to 214. In digging around there is logic behind a lower score because these teams are on 3-0 UNDER move, failing to break 200 points in any contest and I have a system that is 27-5 UNDER since 1997 with clubs like OKC on long winning streaks in March. Nevertheless, Detroit is 10-1 OVER after playing four consecutive home games, the Thunder are 15-4 OVER away having won eight or more of their last 10 tilts and when Kevin Durant and friends are playing without rest this season in back to back road contests, the average total score is 236 points. (4 games)
Betting Trend – 57% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CBB – (773) BYU vs. (774) VALPARAISO 7:00 ET ESPN
In the NIT semifinal opener, Valparaiso has been lifted from a Pick to -2. This is most likely predicated on the Crusaders being the better defense team, holding foes to 38.4 percent compared to BYU at 41.5%. However, the Cougars play in a tougher conference and one that is more offensive-minded. Half of Valpo’s six setbacks were to teams who push the pace (Oregon, Belmont and UW-Green Bay), which could be cause for concern. But upon close inspection, BYU is 1-10 ATS as a neutral court underdog of three points or less, thus we will back the Crusaders.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Valparaiso
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Valparaiso
CBB – (775) GEOR. WASHINGTON vs. (776) SAN DIEGO ST. 9:30 ET ESPN
In second contest at MSG in the NIT, basketball bettors are pretty sure who will dictate tempo. George Washington prefers to get up and down the floor compared to San Diego State, who plays more deliberately and the opening total of 132.5 was dropped to 128.5, before coming back up today to 129.5. That is still a three points lower from starting point. I agree and will share with you the Aztecs are 11-3 UNDER after playing two consecutive home games and 32-11 UNDER after posting three straight victories. Late Update – Total up to 130.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CBB – (781) OLD DOMINION vs. (782) UCSB 9:00 ET CBSSN
This semifinal affair opened as a Pick, but Old Dominion has been shoved to a -2 point favorite. The Monarchs have better overall athleticism, but as we have seen all March, if you can make 3’s you have a chance and UCSB averages eight a game and ODU is at only four a contest. Old Dominion is a very strong rebounding squad and protects the ball a little better, however, the Gauchos are 10-3 ATS after two straight games giving up nine or less offensive rebounds and are 14-5 ATS away from home this season, winning by 3.2 PPG.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Old Dominion
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean UCSB
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 47-54
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 31-26-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 78-78-1