The March Madness continues and we have the line moves for Saturday and Sunday at this time, plus a NBA number we are trying to figure out. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are on nice 55-39 run, to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week.
CBB – (521) VILLANOVA vs. (522) KANSAS 8:49 ET CBS
As good as Kansas has looked in winning and covering three tournament games, a case can certainly be made Villanova has played even better and they have fallen from +3 to +2 for what legitimately could be a national championship game. The Wildcats are shooting almost 60 percent thus far and if they come anywhere close again to that number, they will advance. However, I am impressed with the Jayhawks defense just as much and think this team is on a mission having won 17 straight and almost as remarkable are 14-3 ATS in those contests and they close this one out late.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Kansas
Doug’s VPID Take – Kansas covers
CBB – (523) OKLAHOMA vs. (524) OREGON 6:09 ET CBS
Coaches Dana Altman and Lon Kruger have been close friends for 30 years but that gets set aside for Saturday afternoon. This West Final opened as a Pick and top-seeded Oregon has been pushed to -1.5. We all know how Buddy Hield and Oklahoma can score from any point of the court, but Oregon is proving they can really defend and they are outstanding in transition offense and pick up easy buckets this way. In the tourney, the Ducks have only committed 26 turnovers compared to the Sooners 37 and this could play directly into the final outcome. Oregon comes in 8-2 ATS versus three-point shooting teams making 37% or more of their attempts this season.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Oregon
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oregon
NBA – (511) UTAH at (512) MINNESOTA 8:05 ET ROOT-RM, FSNO
You do not find many NBA games that move 3.5 points on side action unless injuries or players being rested occur. That is why I scoured Minnesota team websites trying to understand why they would go from +4 to +7.5 point home underdogs against Utah. My research did not dig up anything on that front, but I totally get the T-Wolves had to travel from Washington off a double OT victory and when digging further, found they are 2-11 and 5-8 ATS with no rest, losing by 8.8 PPG. Utah has an extra day of rest, is 6-2 SU & ATS in their last eight outings and have every reason to be sharper after losing by 22 at Oklahoma City. Granted, Minny is 6-18 ATS after three straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more, but this just seems like a lot of points.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Utah
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Minnesota
CBB – Sunday (713) SYRACUSE vs. (714) VIRGINIA 6:09 ET TBS
Whether Syracuse deserved to be a part of this aspect of March Madness is still debatable, but there is no debating the Orange has made the most of it. This is a rematch from Jan. 24th in which Virginia won at home 73-65. The closing total on that tilt was 126, making it an easy OVER. The oddsmakers posted a 122 total Saturday morning and it was swiftly sent to 124. The low total probably has something to do with Syracuse permitting 53.6 PPG in their last three games, but the Cavaliers are more familiar with this zone and have active frontcourt players that can score over the top. With the Virginia defense having allowed opponents to connect on 46 percent or more of shot attempts in four of last five contests, we will back the direction of move.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 45-50
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 28-25-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 72-74-1