My original plan was to give you two days of line moves for the NCAA tournament but thus far not much has happen for Sunday by Saturday afternoon, leaving us relegated to today. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are on sweet 47-28 run, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
CBB – (523) BUTLER vs. (524) VIRGINIA 7:10 ET TBS
It doesn’t happen every time, but it happens a great of the time that Virginia is involved in lower scoring games, that is why they are 20-12 UNDER this season. This is why the total on another of their games went south from 132 to 130.5. It is impossible to argue with the Cavaliers defensive numbers and they are 12-4 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season. Should not overlook Butler here either, since they are 6-0 UNDER in away affairs in March games the last two seasons, with average score of 128.8 total points.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CBB – (525) PROVIDENCE vs. (526) NORTH CAROLINA 9:40 ET TBS
Though Providence is 11-6 SU and ATS this year away from home, the Friars are being jacked up from +9.5 to +11. My guess is there are concerns about their field goal percentage defense which sits at 43.7 percent, taking on North Carolina shooters who connect at 47.7 percent rate. Providence could also have problems on the glass, having -1 rebound differential, compared to the Tar Heels at +8. Nonetheless, Roy’s Boys are only 10-24 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 games the last three seasons, with score differential of 7.4 PPG.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Providence
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Providence
CBB – (527) CONNECTICUT vs. (528) KANSAS 7:45 ET CBS
The total on this matchup of heavyweight programs is up two points to 141. Both these teams hold opponents to under 40% shooting, but they use their defense as a means to generate offense either by transition baskets or just making stops to run offensive plays which leads to baskets. While I have any number of numbers I could trot out and make a convincing argument the total is heading the wrong way, I see two battle-tested squads who will offer no quarter and will make foul shots and fully expect this total to be closer to 150 than 140.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CBB – (533) GONZAGA vs. (534) UTAH 8:40 ET TNT
Gonzaga defeated the Big East champions with relative ease Thursday. However, if you watched the game it was not so much what the Zags did compared to what Seton Hall did to themselves. Sportsbooks have taken this contest and moved the Bulldogs from a Pick to -1.5, with pedigree part of the answer. However, I still don’t like the Gonzaga guards and Utah is more mature team than Seton Hall and has the inside players to negate the Zags inside strengths. With the Utes 11-3 ATS versus teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers a contest after 15 or more games this season, they will be my choice.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Utah
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Utah
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 39-42
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 24-22-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 58-66-1