Another wacky day with massive totals line moves in the smaller college hoops tournaments. Yesterday, if you followed me instead of the numbers you got nice profit. Today we follow a college basketball total that is not nearly as large, but important because it is a First Four contest. This plus three games with actual sides action happening, a rare occurrence early in the day of late. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are on sweet 40-23, run, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (607) OKLAHOMA CITY at (608) BOSTON 7:05 ET ESPN
Boston having lost three of four and scoring under the century mark in last two defeats, NBA bettors not taking for granted the Celtics will score with Oklahoma City and pushed them from +2 to +4.5 as home underdogs. Boston has lost their best defender in Jae Crowder for a couple weeks with ankle, but it’s not like the Thunder are tearing it up with 5-8 and 5-6-2 ATS. With OKC coming off one their better defensive efforts of the year in blowout of Portland, they are 1-11 ATS after game where they allowed a shooting percentage of 35% or less the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Oklahoma City
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Boston
NBA – (609) ATLANTA at (610) DETROIT 7:35 ET FSSE, FSD
In case you have not noticed, Atlanta has been rounding into form after languishing most of the season. Since falling to Golden State by 10 just over three weeks ago, the Hawks have flown to new heights at 7-2 SU and ATS. Yet bettors cannot take their eyes off Detroit’s gaudy 19-10-1 ATS home record (19-11 SU) and shifted the Pistons to home one-point favorites. Where this starts to matter more is Detroit is 15-5 ATS as home favorite. Atlanta is solid 29-16 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more the last three seasons, making this extremely difficult choice.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Detroit
CBB – (619) SOUTHERN U. vs. (620) HOLY CROSS 6:40 ET truTV
Holy Cross is in the field of 68 for the first time in nine years, but other than the locals, nobody is impressed because of their 14-19 record. Part of the Crusaders unsightly record in attributed to meager offense, which comes into showdown with Southern averaging only 65.3 PPG. This has helped mold the total in taking a dip from 131 to 129. When totals move in this range during the Big Dance, the lower score has proven profitable in 10 of the last 13 times this ended up happening.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CBB – (651) PEPPERDINE at (652) EAST. WASHINGTON 9:00 ET
This CBI left-coaster has seen Pepperdine go from -1 to +1 road underdogs. Eastern Washington can shoot the ball, averaging better than 81 PPG and converting at 48.9 percent clip. This could well be high scoring affair but the Eagles have not been playing well at all in losing five of six (1-5 ATS) and I think the oddsmakers original pick was the right for this encounter.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Pepperdine
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Pepperdine
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 37-36
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 22-20-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 54-58-1