For Hump Day, the total in the NBA Finals is roving around and we have the latest info for line moves on this development. In addition, we three MLB contests, including a matinee, in which the numbers are on the move. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (99-66, 60% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (505) GOLDEN STATE at (506) CLEVELAND 9:00 ET ABC
Having averaged 104.3 points per game this season, the first thing hoops bettors want to know is can Cleveland reach 90 against Golden State in The Finals? There seems to be some general hesitation about this occurring with the total sinking from 206 to 205 and even lower at other sportsbooks. In wagering on this contest, it is about the Cavaliers offense. In their past six games (2-4 SU and ATS by the way), three times they have shot 47 percent or higher and three times below 39%. The Cavs are 16-6 UNDER after two or more consecutive losses the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (903) ATLANTA at (904) SAN DIEGO 3:40 ET FSSE, FSSD
Though the record do not indicate it, good pitching matchup this afternoon in SoCal with Julio Teheran (1-6, 2.92 ERA) facing Drew Pomeranz (5-5, 2.22). Bettors are on the Padres Pomeranz to come through since San Diego has won the first two tilts of series and five of past seven, compared to Atlanta on another six-game losing streak and they shoved the Friars from -140 to -160 plus. However, this matchup has nearly as many negative numbers as the federal deficit. The Braves are 5-20 as an underdog of +125 to +175 and 1-14 after a loss by two runs or less this season. San Diego is 1-18 in series finales and Pomeranz and teammates are 0-9 in day games. So now what?
Betting Trend – 97% backing San Diego
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean San Diego (?)
MLB – (907) ST. LOUIS at (908) CINCINNATI 7:05 ET FSMW, FSOH
If you Google – Baseball totals – you probably will not be surprised to see a picture of the Reds Alfredo Simon (2-5, 8.94). OK, that is not true, but his ERA is larger than a Big Gulp drink and he is 6-2 OVER this season and 19-9 OVER going back to last year. Given the Cincinnati bullpen is the worst in baseball by a wide margin and their offense is averaging 7.7 RPG in their last eight outings, it is not hard to agree with total lifting up from 9 to 9.5.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Texas
Doug’s VPID Take -Play Over
MLB – (927) WASHINGTON at (928) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 ET MASN2, CSN-C
Trailing 5-2 last night, Washington scored the game’s last eight runs and ran away from Chicago 10-5. Baseball bettors are thinking more of the same with Max Scherzer (6-4, 3.87) taking on newly-acquired James Shields (2-7, 4.28), who goes from one toughest home run parks to one of the easiest. The Nationals have been built up from -150 to -165 or higher. Scherzer is 12-6 with a good 2.54 ERA versus the White Sox and is 61-25 against an AL team with an on-base percentage .320 or worse in his career. (Team’s Record)
Betting Trend – 66% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Washington wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 99-108-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 88-71-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 188-174-2