Time to move on to Tuesday and we have line moves all over the place on the diamond today. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (94-66, 58.7% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (951) N.Y. METS at (952) PITTSBURGH 4:05 ET RTPT, SNY
No pitching changes from last night’s rainout in Pittsburgh for opener in series. However, the money was moving off New York to the Pirates yesterday and the Mets have gone from -135 to +100 underdogs. Though Steven Matz (7-1, 2.60 ERA) has been outstanding for New York, former Met Jon Niese (5-2, 4.36) has long been known to pitch like a Moet faucet, running hot or cold and he has a 2.00 ERA in his past three starts and undoubtedly would like some payback versus his former club. I liked Pitt as an underdog yesterday, but days off frequently change dynamics, thus, just a small lean with the Bucs. (Consider Game 1 loser in nightcap)
Betting Trend – 55% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Pittsburgh
MLB – (961) KANSAS CITY at (962) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET FSKC, MASN
You know your offense is REALLY struggling when you are a rising underdog against Ubaldo Jimenez (2-6, 6.59). Kansas City has lost five straight, scoring just seven runs (three times in past four) in last five outings and has gone from +105 to +120 versus Jimenez and Baltimore. Yordano Ventura (4-3, 4.82) has not looked anything like an ace and the Royals are finding out what comes with being World Series champs and are 11-20 on the road. Jimenez has ERA over 10 in last three starts, but he and the O’s are 16-4 at Camden Yards since last season.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Kansas City
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Baltimore
MLB – (967) HOUSTON at (968) TEXAS 8:05 ET RTSW, FSSW
This is starting to remind me of roulette player who loses on 10 straight black bets to red and when he finally wins says, “I knew black was due”. Houston has lost all seven games to Texas this season and 11 in a row at Arlington, yet the Astros have been switched from +110 to -109 favorites. Houston starts Dallas Keuchel (3-7, 5.50) against Cole Hamels (5-1, 3.39) and with the ‘Stros lefty 0-5 an AL team with an on-base percentage .320 or worse this season (Team’s Record), I will ride the Rangers again tonight.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Texas
Doug’s VPID Take – Texas wins
MLB – (969) OAKLAND at (970) MILWAUKEE 8:10 ET CSN-CA, FSWI
In interleague action we find two clubs with similar losing records, yet sportsbooks are lowering the road underdogs. Oakland with struggling rookie Sean Manaea (2-3, 6.16) takes the mound for the A’s and he will face an improving Zach Davies (3-3, 4.53) for Milwaukee. Davies posted an 8.78 ERA in his first three starts this season but since his record is 3-0 with a 2.97 in six outings. Not much to choose from with these two squads, yet I did uncover the Athletics are 14-32 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Milwaukee
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Milwaukee
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 98-105-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 87-71-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 185-176-2