Back to our weekend line moves edition and we have three MLB games for today along with series wagering. We also note not much movement in the Game 3 of Stanley Cup Finals, with San Jose holding steady as the home favorite. For Sunday in the NBA Finals, we see the total has fallen to 206.5 and might go lower by game time. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (89-65, 57.7% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Monday.
MLB – (963) COLORADO at (964) SAN DIEGO 10:40 ET RTRM, FSSD
With San Diego have tallied 27 runs at home in the past two games and allowing 38 in last three, the total for tonight’s NL West tilt has been elevated from 7 to 7.5. One could make the case this is the wrong line move because the Padres might be exhausted from the swinging and running they have been doing (not used to) and the bullpen is worn out. Nonetheless, when the total is 7 to 8.5 and a NL team is batting average of .250 or worse and has scored eight runs or more in two straight games, they are 36-8 OVER since 2012.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (967) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (968) DETROIT 7:10 ET CSN-C, FSD
After losing seven in a row to fall out of first place in the AL Central, the White Sox took the last two versus the Mets and have a bit of confidence heading to Detroit. Baseball bettors are now questioning the Tigers, who have lost six of eight, even with Jordan Zimmermann (7-2, 2.52 ERA) pitching and dropped Detroit from -145 to -130. Pale Hose starter Carlos Rodon (2-4, 4.24) has a 2.55 ERA in last three outings, still, his teammates have lost seven of his 10 starts, making the home team more delectable.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Detroit
MLB – (975) OAKLAND at (976) HOUSTON 8:10 ET CSN-BA, RTSW
A pair of below .500 clubs out of the AL West are ready to collide and favored Houston has slide from -170 to -145 against visiting Oakland. The Astros are beginning to look like the squad from last year in winning eight of 10 and will send Doug Fister (4-3, 3.86) up the hill. The Athletics have won five consecutive times (all at home) and counter with Jesse Hahn (2-2, 4.15). The situation still favors the Astros and the A’s have been generally starting weekend series on the wrong foot with 11-22 record in Friday’s.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Houston
Doug’s VPID Take – Houston wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 98-105-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 83-68-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 181-173-2
MLB – N.Y. METS (-125) at MIAMI (+105) – Series Betting
New York appears poised to take opener of series with Noah Snydergaard, however, the middle contest could be up for grabs with Bartolo Colon facing Justin Nicolino. The finale goes back in favor of Miami with Jose Fernandez almost unbeatable at home against a still somewhat puzzling Matt Harvey. This could go either way, but prefer Mets bullpen to close out tight contests.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play New York at -125
MLB – SAN FRANCISCO (Even) at ST. LOUIS (-120) – Series Betting
Game 1 of this series is a virtual tossup with Johnny Cueto facing Adam Wainwright, but just the fact oddsmakers have it this price in St. Louis says something. Jeff Samardzija will take on Michael Wacha in Game 2 and the Giants hurler has been much sharper all season. The final contest is on ESPN for Sunday Night Baseball and it is anyone’s guess what Jake Peavy and Carlos Martinez might do. With the Giants winners of 17 of 21 and 18-11 on the road this season, we will lean their way.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play San Francisco at Even
MLB – SEATTLE (-105) at TEXAS (-125) – Series Betting
With Taijuan Walker not as clean in his last four starts compared to earlier in the season, Texas with Yu Darvish making his second start is the first game favorite. The Saturday showdown has a couple of dependable hurlers this season going at it with Nate Karns against Martin Perez. The Sunday confrontation also could be close with Hisashi Iwakuma for the M’s versus Derek Holland for the Rangers. Seattle has been super road team (19-8) and Texas trouble at home (18-9) and in these circumstances the visitor usually does well and the Mariners have won 13 of 22 at Arlington lately.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Seattle at -105