Not your typical sleepy Monday for line moves this time of year. We choose the four most important games, but there was certainly others. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (122-96, 55.9% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (953) N.Y. METS at (954) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET SNY, MASN
With Washington slumping and Mets trying to find more offense, both clubs open this series searching for answers, quickly. At least from betting perspective, some of those those using their money think they have the solution and pushed the total from 7 to 7.5. Noah Syndergaard (8-2, 2.08 ERA) believes he is fine after being pulled in last start with potential elbow problem, which proved not to be true. Joe Ross (6-4, 3.21) has been effective starter for Washington and with his team a +110 underdog, he is 11-2 UNDER in that role, which what I prefer.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (959) TEXAS at (960) N.Y. YANKEES 7:05 ET FSSW, YES
The Texas Rangers are scalding hot and like the late great comedian Rodney Dangerfield, “They get no respect”. Texas has the best record in the AL (49-27) despite now missing three starting pitchers and having the 28th ranked bullpen by ERA (4.73). In spite of sizzling 27-8 streak, the Rangers have gone from +105 to +120 in series opener against the Yankees. Despite success, Texas has to dip down to minors and will start Chi-Chi Gonzalez, making his first appearance with the big club in 2016 and he will face Ivan Nova (4-4, 5.18). Though New York certainly seems like the right pick, Texas is 34-18 as underdogs this season, making this very difficult.
Betting Trend – 56% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean New York
MLB – (961) BOSTON at (962) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET NESN, SUN
It not every day in betting baseball that a team on an 11-game losing streak goes from underdog to favorite, yet this is what occurred to Tampa Bay. The Rays went from +110 to -112 home faves as enough bettors have figured the Tampa Bay cannot keep losing indefinitely and vaunted rookie Blake Snell (0-2, 2.40) has the appearance of a better choice than Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez (1-2, 6.41). This AL East encounters has mostly to do with negatives for both teams and we will ever so slightly go against the line movement with the Rays having devil of time with at 1-16 mark when playing against a team with win percentage of 54% to 62% this season.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Tampa Bay
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Boston
MLB – (969) TORONTO at (970) COLORADO 8:40 ET RTRM, RSN
Uncommon interleague matchup with these two clubs. Toronto with Marco Estrada (5-3, 2.70) have fallen from -145 to -110 favorites, making their first trek to Colorado in six years. Jon Gray (4-3, 4.93) climbs the hill for the Rockies and he will be part of the subplot in facing Troy Tulowitzki, who return to Coors Field for first time since being traded. The Blue Jays are better overall club, have more consistent starting pitcher and should wreak havoc in Rocks pen.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Toronto
Doug’s VPID Take – Toronto wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 118-119-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 99-83-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 211-205-2