We have just a ton of action for line moves today! Besides the four games listed, bigger favorites like San Francisco, Miami and Texas are sinking, while the New York Mets and Toronto are climbing even higher on the money line. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (116-85, 57.7% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (955) ST. LOUIS at (956) CHIC. CUBS 8:05 ET FSMW, WLS
Yesterday we wondered why the total in the NL Central showdown was on the rise, tonight, not nearly as much. Sportsbooks have taken the total from 8 to 8.5 with Adam Wainwright (5-4, 3.93 ERA) taking on Jason Hammel (7-2, 2.26). Wainwright has an ERA of almost four (3.96) against his former team and Hammel is at 4.69 versus St. Louis. This a difficult read with Dexter Fowler now on the DL and Jayson Heyward batting like he did in final years with Atlanta. Let’s give a nod to higher score with the Cardinals 15-4 OVER after allowing two runs or less this season.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (959) SEATTLE at (960) DETROIT 7:10 ET RTNW, FSD (side and total)
Though Justin Verlander (7-5, 3.87) does not throw in the upper 90’s consistently anymore, he still brings a heater and he will face James Paxton (1-2, 2.86), who regularly reaches 97 MPH with his fastball. With this much velocity on display, those betting baseball have seen the total slip from 9 to 8.5. While a lower score is possible, Detroit is 14-4 OVER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. The oddsmakers have again lowered the Tigers as favorites in this series, down from -140 to -130 or less. With Detroit having won 8-7 in extra innings Monday, they are 10-2 after scoring eight runs or more this season, while Paxton and Seattle are 2-10 after dark.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Detroit and 82% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Detroit wins and Over
MLB – (969) SAN DIEGO at (970) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET FSSD, MASN
If the number holds, this will be only the second time Baltimore will play with a total of 10 at Camden Yards this season. (However, second time in four days) The original total was 9.5 and of course the first place you have to look for this to occur is the starting pitching and this is where we find Tyler Wilson (3-5, 4.16) for the Orioles and Luis Perdomo (2-2, 8.79) for San Diego. We certainly understand the argument, yet, the O’s had makeup in game in Texas last night and had to fly back home and they are 26-7 UNDER at Orioles Park after batting .333 or better over a five-game span.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (977) PHILADELPHIA at (978) MINNESOTA 8:10 ET CSN-P, FSNO (side and total)
The expression, “two rats in a hat” fits these two teams, nonetheless, this there was enough wagering action to move the side and total. As bad as Minnesota is, Philadelphia has dumped 20 of 24 and looks more like the team most expected in March. Still, it is crazy to see the Twins being taken from -110 to -135, which will be only there 14th favorite role of the season. The total has taken a tumble from 8.5 to 8 the Phillies baseball’s worst offense (3.1 RPG) and the Twinkies at a mediocre 3.9 RPG. Though both starting pitchers are capable of holding down the opposition, the bullpens are flammable.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Minnesota and 59% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Philadelphia and Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 113-116-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 94-80-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 200-200-2