As we head into the sixth month of the year, we have three MLB line moves to discuss and touch on a run line that is a little unusual. It is Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals and line is definitely on the move. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (85-62, 57.8% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (961) CINCINNATI at (962) COLORADO 8:40 ET FSOH, RTRM
You do not have to study analytics to understand why the total in this NL clash went from 11 to 11.5. Cincinnati is permitting 6.2 runs per game (which means in simple math they have to score seven on average to win). Their bullpen is the worst in baseball and Colorado is the top scoring home team in the senior circuit at 6.0 RPG. Rockies starter Tyler Chatwood (6-3, 2.69 ERA) could mess this up with how he has been pitching, however, he has 5.10 ERA at Coors Field. Certainly not a lock, but the Reds are 15-2 OVER revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs the last two seasons. Also, the run line (-1.5) had Colorado at -120, when the money line on the Rocks was at -180 and it has remained there with the Rockies now north of -200 on the ML. Seems like odd occurrence.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (969) BOSTON at (970) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET NESN, MASN
For a second straight night the total in this AL East encounter is on the move, this time going up from 9 to 9.5. Boston is baseball’s best scoring team at 5.9 RPG and they have totaled 13 in two tilts where crab cakes are plentiful. A look at the starting pitchers ERA is what has everyone so concerned, as Joe Kelly (2-0, 6.30) faces the O’s Mike Wright (2-3, 5.50). It would appear both bullpens will see lots of action and the Red Sox are 10-1 OVER with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.25 the last 15 games this season.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (971) N.Y. YANKEES at (972) TORONTO 7:05 ET YES, RSN
With Toronto’s Aaron Sanchez (4-1, 3.29) getting roughed up a little of late and Masahiro Tanaka (3-0, 2.89) coming on for New York, the Blue Jays have flown from -115 to -103. While Tanaka has 2.14 ERA in three starts at the Rogers Centre, the Yankees offense has stalled like a Oklahoma City offense at crunch time, scoring 2.7 runs per game in their last seven. No simple solution here with the Jays 0-7 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season and the Yanks 6-20 with an on-base percentage of .260 or worse over their last three games since last year. Having to pick poison, lean with the home team.
Betting Trend – 63% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Toronto
NHL – (53) SAN JOSE at (54) PITTSBURGH 8:05 ET NBCSN
My feeling going into the Cup Finals was that San Jose would win one of the first two in Pittsburgh, just not sure which one. The Sharks were the best road team in the NHL this season and if you go back 25 games of finals hockey, the home team is only 14-11. I see San Jose being less nervous after first-ever finals contest and they play with more desperation, not wanting to go home down 0-2 and come through tonight.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Pittsburgh
Doug’s VPID Take – San Jose wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 96-103-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 81-65-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 180-161-2