A large amount of activity for line moves today. It is all in baseball, with several games having side and totals movement. Tonight’s NBA Finals conflict has seen the total only dip a half point. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (109-79, 57.9% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (903) PITTSBURGH at (904) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET RTPT, SNY
This series is tied at 1-1 as two beat-up clubs try to manufacture a victory any way possible. New York opened as a -143 favorite, but has since fallen to -130 in spite of Bartolo Colon (5-3, 3.14 ERA) in much better form than Pittsburgh’s Juan Nicasio (5-4, 4.03). Colon has an ERA of 2.10 in past three starts, while Nicasio has scuffled, especially on the road, where he has a 6.30 ERA and the Pirates have dropped four of five. Mets are 19-6 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 91% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New York
MLB – (913) BALTIMORE at (914) BOSTON 7:10 ET MASN, NESN (side and total)
Neither Tyler Wilson (2-5, 5.29) nor Eduardo Rodriguez (1-1, 6.06) are missing many bats, which leads to the total jumping from 9.5 all the way to 10.5 at most sportsbooks. With struggling starters and high-scoring clubs, this could happen and Boston is 21-7 OVER versus a bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. Hard to make as strong a case for the Red Sox moving from -135 to -150. I will ever so slightly back the BoSox since they are 11-3 when Rodriguez pitchers after at night.
Betting Trend – 91% backing Over and 72% on Boston
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over, Slight lean Boston
MLB – (917) DETROIT at (918) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET FSD, FSKC (side and total)
Detroit opens four-game series in Kansas City hoping Justin Verlander (6-5, 3.77) can keep pitching as well as he has recently and get off to strong start against Kansas City crew who has done about face. Since losing eight straight, the Royals have reeled off five wins in a row and are one the best home teams in baseball at 22-7. Danny Duffy (2-1, 2.94) grabs the ball for K.C. and despite 3-6 record against the Tigers, he has 2.95 ERA when facing them. With the Royals this hot, they have slipped from +115 to +100. The total has gone up from 7.5 to 8, just keep in mind Duffy is 11-0 UNDER as an underdog and his club is 6-0 at home versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better this season.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Detroit and 51% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take -Leans Kansas City and Under
MLB – (919) TORONTO at (920) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET CSN-P, RSN (side and total)
It is the last match in a four-game home and home series and those betting baseball have helped push Toronto from -150 to -135 or less, with J.A. Happ (7-3, 3.70) finally showing signs of returning to career norms after blistering start. The Phillies Aaron Nola (5-5, 3.20 has the making of a fine hurler, but has been sharper on the road than at home. Either way, baseball bettors think runs will not be easy to come by and lowered the total from 8 to 7.5. Happ is a former Phillie and is 3-0 against them and the Blue Jays offense is finally starting to swing the bats, averaging 6.9 RPG in last seven.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Philadelphia and 76% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Toronto wins and Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 109-111-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 91-79-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 199-187-2