For line moves today we had more choices than usual and decided to look into the bigger games of the day. While the Marlins falling from -125 to -110 is of note, it is not a big battle for Wednesday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (107-77, 58.1% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (957) CHIC. CUBS at (958) WASHINGTON 4:05 ET WGN (Local), MASN
Stephen Strasburg (10-0, 3.03 ERA) is finally living up to the potential so many had for him. Though he’s been hit a little bit more lately, he throwing with authority and confidence like we have not seen really since rookie campaign. On the topic of confidence, the Cubs Jason Hammel (7-2, 2.36) has plenty of it confidence himself, especially versus Washington, with a 9-0 in his career mark in 12 starts with a 3.16 ERA. It is the most wins without any losses for any active pitcher against one team. Bundle these two factors together and the total has sunk from 7.5 to 7. However, cannot overlook Strasburg is 11-2 OVER this season and 7-0 OVER as a home favorite.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (963) BALTIMORE at (964) BOSTON 7:10 ET ESPN2
The battle for first place in the AL East continues tonight and sportsbooks have lowered favored Boston from -150 to -135. There are many sports bettors not sure the Red Sox Steven Wright (7-4, 2.09) can continue to be this effective, though against a power hitting team like Baltimore, Wright might be the right choice with only three homers allowed. The Orioles will send Kevin Gausman (0-3, 3.45) to the slab, as he seeks his first win of the season (Birds 4-6 in his starts). While we like watching the O’s hard-throwing right-hander pitch, something has not come together and he and teammates are 2-10 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 90% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Boston
MLB – (969) CLEVELAND at (970) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET STO, FSKC
Kansas City moved to within one game of first place Cleveland in the AL Central with a clutch 3-2 triumph on Tuesday. The Royals will try and move into tie with Tribe but those betting baseball are liking a higher score than anticipated, raising the total from 7.5 to 8. Both Corey Kluber (6-6, 3.65) and Ian Kennedy (4-5, 4.06) have been brilliant and pathetic and from start to start and you are never sure which you will receive. With both offenses averaging 3.6 runs per game or less in the last seven outings, prefer the lower score on hunch both hurlers will have above average stuff.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take -Lean Under
MLB – (979) HOUSTON at (980) ST.LOUIS 7:15 ET RTSW, FSMW
Houston stunned St. Louis 5-2 yesterday and goes after two-game series sweep tonight. Almost all of those wagering on baseball are on the Cardinals, but influence have sent the Redbirds from -150 to -120. Adam Wainwright (5-4, 5.21) has been making modest improvement, but still not shown flashes of prior years. The Astros Collin McHugh (5-5, 5.22) is notoriouslt poor on the road, but his team is 21-7 against the NL the past couple years. Still, I’ll take the Cards with Wainwright 13-1 in his career vs. the ‘Stros and Cardinals 21-5 at Busch revenging a loss as a home favorite.
Betting Trend – 96% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean St. Louis
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 109-110-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 90-77-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 197-185-2