To this point, all quiet on the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals fronts, thus, we will turn our attention to baseball. For Friday, we have three line moves and also will take a look at three series for the weekend. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (101-73, 58% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Monday.
MLB – (903) ST. LOUIS at (904) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET FSMW, RTPT
If Pittsburgh would have known, they probably would have preferred to take a forfeit instead of boarding a plane to fly to Colorado for one game, get mashed 11-5 and have little time to prepare for St. Louis series. In spite of Cardinals starter Michael Wacha (2-6, 5.14 ERA) having an ERA of 9 over his past three starts, the Pirates with Gerrit Cole (5-4, 2.85) have fallen from -160 to -141 home favorites. Though the Bucs has lost nine of 13, Cole has largely been great opening up series on weekends, with a 14-2 record on Friday’s. (Pirates record)
Betting Trend – 95% backing Pittsburgh
Doug’s VPID Take – Pittsburgh wins
MLB – (909) SAN DIEGO at (910) COLORADO 8:40 ET FSSD, RTRM (side and total)
This is one weird setup for this NL West confrontation. The total has grown wings, taking off from 11 to 12 or 12.5, depending on the sportsbook. San Diego’s Andrew Cashner (3-5, 4.78) will face the Rockies Jon Gray (4-2, 5.53) and because these pitchers have terrible road/home dicotomy (Cashner 5.40 road ERA, Gray 6.65 home ERA), the total is up. Sure sounds like a lot runs. Also, Colorado seems to be on a Rocky Mountain high, sent from -160 to -200 or higher for this contest. Money line is too high, thus, just selection on total.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (917) BALTIMORE at (918) TORONTO 7:07 ET MASN, RSN
First time for Baltimore in Toronto this season and the sizzling Orioles are feeling the love from baseball bettors, down from +145 to +114. The Birds have won eight of nine and five straight and believe starter Kevin Gausmann (3.57) is back to normal despite not winning a game this season with 0-3 mark. However, Marco Estrada (4-2, 2.41) has turned into reliable starter and at home has been lights out with a 1.30 ERA. Though I prefer the Blue Jays, will not ignore their 0-6 records at home with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Toronto
Doug’s VPID Take -Lean Baltimore
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 105-108-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 88-74-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 193-178-2
MLB – L.A. DODGERS (-120) at SAN FRANCISCO (Even) – Series Betting
Always a great rivalry and fun games to watch. Clayton Kershaw against Johnny Cueto in the opener, with teams a combined 20-2 in their starts, awesome! The middle contest has Scott Kazmir against Jeff Samardjiza and that could go either way. Prefer Jake Peavy in series finale against teenager Julio Urias. This could mean the first game sets the tone and plenty of handicappers with take the value of San Fran at +150, but I am Kershaw guy.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Los Angeles at -120
MLB – DETROIT (+120) at N.Y. YANKEES (-140) – Series Betting
The Yankees are back to .500 after four-game sweep of the Angels and should win Game 1 behind a revitalized CC Sabathia. Game 2 will be harder choice with Justin Verlander and Masahiro Tanaka both in good form. The last contest is also a virtual tossup with Tigers rookie Michael Fulmer showing well and Michael Pinada improving, but still an unknown. Detroit arrives in the Big Apple winners of six of eight, but New York will find a way to take a pair.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play New York at -140
MLB – TEXAS (+120) at SEATTLE (-140) – Series Betting
Seattle will be hell-bent on revenge, after being swept in Arlington last weekend. Texas will have real shot on Friday night with Derek Holland 11-4 against the Mariners and the home team 8-11 vs. lefties. On Saturday, choosing between Colby Lewis and Jamie Paxton could have bettors heading for the Maalox. In theory, Cole Hamels taking on Wade Miley sounds like a Rangers winner, but it depends which Miley shows up Sunday. Will revenge be enough of a motive for the M’s? I’m saying No.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Texas at +120