Shorter slate made no difference to baseball bettors, with more than enough line moves for Thursday. One we will not comment on is afternoon action in St. Louis, with Cards flying from -160 to -140 or lower and quite a bit of wise guy action on the underdog Pirates. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (129-103, 55.6% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (953) WASHINGTON at (954) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET MASN, SNY
Very meaningful series for these two NL East clubs. While there will be ample side betting action over the next four days with these major market clubs, today at least the total is what most have cared about and the opening 7.5 is up to 8.5. The pitching matchup is unique with Lucas Giolito making his second big league start and he is the seventh youngest MLB player currently. Of course Bartolo Colon (7-4, 2.91 ERA) is the sports elder statesmen at 43+. Though both offenses are sporadic, they have been in good form of late and big move seems justified.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (957) SAN DIEGO at (958) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET FSSD, SNLA
The Dodgers had numerous chances to take down Baltimore and failed in extra innings yesterday. Today Los Angeles trots out Hyun-Jin Ryu for the first time since 2014 postseason to start a game for them. Those betting baseball and insiders following his minor league starts this season are not impressed and dumped the Dodgers from -160 to -135 over rival San Diego. The Padres will start Drew Pomeranz (7-7, 2.65), who has seen opposing batter only hit .191 against him. Prefer the value of underdog with better starter and offense is at 6.1 runs a game in last 12 tries.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take – San Diego wins
MLB – (965) MINNESOTA at (966) TEXAS 8:05 ET FSNO, FSSW
Tyler Duffey (4-6, 5.62) will toe the rubber for Minnesota, while Chi Chi Gonzalez (0-1, 9.53) makes his third spot start of the year for Texas. If that was not reason enough to lift the total from 10.5 to 11, the Twins bullpen ranks 13th in ERA (4.46) and the Rangers dead last in the AL (4.96) is the clincher. Though this number is Coors Field worthy, the Twinkies are 11-0 OVER after six or more consecutive home games this season.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (969) SEATTLE at (970) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET RTNW, FSKC
Kansas City has scuffled as World Series champions to 43-41 record, but that has not been the case at Kauffman Stadium where they are 27-11 (+15.8 units). The Royals are back home to complete first half and dropped final four forays of last road trip. However, Kansas City has been pushed from -130 to -145 home favorite, not only because of home record but Seattle’s sinking road fortunes. The Mariners started the year as one of baseball best away clubs, but after nine consecutive defeats and losers of 14 of 16 away from Coffee Town, they cannot be trusted.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Kansas City
Doug’s VPID Take – Kansas City wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 121-122-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 105-90-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 224-212-2