Quite a few choices for hump day on the diamond and we will stick with those that had the biggest adjustments for line moves and try and clue you in on what is going on. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (127-102, 55.4% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (909) PITTSBURGH at (910) ST. LOUIS 8:15 ET RTPT, FSMW
After stumbling for an extended period, Pittsburgh has reheated and won six straight and nine of 11, receiving better pitching on all fronts. However, those betting baseball are not all that enamored with starting pitchers Jeff Locke (8-5, 5.13 ERA) and Jamie Garcia (6-6, 3.84) and shoved the total from 8 to at least 8.5 if not 9, depending on the sportsbook. This a judgment call with the Pirates 12-4 OVER when Locke has started and St. Louis 14-3 UNDER when Garcia takes the ball at Busch Stadium. If you prefer the UNDER like I do, make sure to grab the 9 for best value.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (911) SAN DIEGO at (912) ARIZONA 9:40 ET FSSD, FSAZ
Arizona is on the move as favorite from -130 to -145 or higher over San Diego, but early wise guy money was on the Padres, backing there hot pitcher. Colin Rea (5-3, 4.79) over his past three starts has allowed five earned runs on a dozen hits over 17 1/3 innings with 18 strikeouts and seven walks. With the D-Backs Shelby Miller (2-8, 6.85) laboring all season long and his teammates 15-31 at Chase Field, it is easy to comprehend the sentiment. With Miller 2-16 in the second half of the season the last two years, (Team’s Record) you have to consider the value.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Arizona
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean San Diego
MLB – (927) N.Y. YANKEES at (928) CHIC WHITE SOX 8:10 ET YES, WPWR
While Chicago Cubs fans wonder if and when they can get their hands on someone from New York’s deep bullpen, those betting baseball in the present are backing the Yankees in Chicago, lifting them from -125 to -145 over the White Sox. The turnaround of Michael Pineda (3-7, 5.24) has a great deal to do with this, with a 2.75 ERA since June 1 and registering 49 punch-outs in 36 innings with devastating slider. Miguel Gonzalez (1-4, 4.88) is manager Robin Ventura’s choice and he’s been nothing special. Not exactly a “lock” pick, but prefer Chicago after 9-0 drubbing last night and they are 17-5 at home after a loss by four runs or more since last season.
Betting Trend – 85% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Chicago
MLB – (929) BALTIMORE at (930) L.A. DODGERS 3:10 ET MASN, SNLA
A rare weekday contest at Dodger Stadium has Los Angeles plummeting from -150 favorite to less than -110 in rubber match with Baltimore. Though no fan of newly acquired Bud Norris (4-7, 3.89), throughout his career he’s been -Play On- at home and when he’s in good groove like now (0.98 ERA L3 starts). Norris also has motivation facing the Orioles, being with them for close to three seasons (2013-15) and Birds starter Kevin Guasman (1-6, 3.97) has an ERA of 5.02 on the road.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take – Los Angeles wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 121-122-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 105-87-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 222-210-2