Sports Betting Line Moves and Free Picks for July 3rd


Quite a bit of activity as various parts of our country get ready to celebrate the Fourth of July starting tonight. Let’s take a look at today’s line moves and see what to look for. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (125-100) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Wednesday.

 MLB – (951) CHIC. CUBS at (952) N.Y. METS  1:10 ET  CSN-C, SNY

The New York Mets continue to be a thorn in the Chicago Cubs side. New York has taken the first three games at Citi Field and look for the home sweep with one of the hardest throwers in baseball going for the Mets in Noah Syndergaard (8-3, 2.52 ERA). The Cubs are hoping Jon Lester (9-3, 2.03) can help them bust out of lethargy, in which they are 2-11 against winning teams the last 26 games. Sportsbooks have lowered the Chicago from -120 to -110, but Lester has been a stopper, with a 14-1 mark versus teams batting .245 or lower since last season. (Cubs record)

Betting Trend – 87% backing Chicago

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Chicago

MLB – (961) MIAMI vs. (962) ATLANTA  8:05 ET   ESPN

This will not be a marquee matchup, but an important contest nevertheless. The encounter will be held at the Fort Bragg and all tickets will go to military personal and their dependents in this nationally televised game. Those betting baseball are interested and pushed Miami from -140 to -153 over Atlanta, having won eight of 11 this season. All website reports have both teams stoked to play tonight after spending a day with the soldiers and the Marlins are 18-9 versus a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better this season.

Betting Trend – 86% backing Miami

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Miami

MLB – (963) CLEVELAND at (964) TORONTO 1:05 ET  STO, RSN

Cleveland saw their 14-game winning streak come to an end yesterday. They will look to continue to play outstanding baseball and improve on current 23-7 record. Oddsmakers established the Indians as -140 road favorite, but they have slipped to under -130 at every sportsbook checked. When teams go on long winning streaks, it is common for them to let down once they finally falter and lose two to four consecutive times. With Toronto a home underdog and Corey Kluber (8-7, 3.74) and the Tribe just 12-19 versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game the last two seasons, like the dog here.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Cleveland

VPID Doug’s Take – Toronto wins

MLB – (979) N.Y. YANKEES at (980) SAN DIEGO 4:40 ET   YES, FSSD

San Diego is going after sweep of the Yankees and while the numbers are not in their favor to pull it off, the total has crumbled from 9 to 8.5. Chad Green has been called up for this assignment and leads the International League in ERA at 1.54. He will take on the Padres Andrew Cashner (3-5, 4.75), who is coming off second stint on the DL this season. With New York a modest -115 road favorite, they are 9-1 UNDER on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 this season.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 120-122-1

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 104-85-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 219-209-2


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