Despite a relatively small MLB card for Thursday, we still arrived at four different line moves, two coming in the same American League contest. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (159-124, 56.1% of late, including 8-0 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (913) BOSTON at (914) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET NESN, FSW (side and total)
There is real concern in Red Sox nation that David Price (9-7, 4.51 ERA) might not only be extremely overpriced for Boston this year at 30 million, but for the next six seasons afterwards. Though the BoSox are still heavily favored after being swept at Fenway by Detroit and losers of five of six, Price and company are down 10 cents to -175 road faves. The Angels have played much better to start the second half at 8-4, thanks to robust offense churning out 5.8 runs per game. Add in aging Jered Weaver (8-8, 5.32) and little wonder the total jumped from 8.5 to 9. Boston and OVER look like safest bets with the Halos 10-20 at the Big A versus a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.35 or better and 11-3 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 at the same location this season.
Betting Trend – 59% backing L.A.A. and 73% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans on Boston and Over
MLB – (915) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (916) CHIC. CUBS 8:05 ET CSN-C, WGN
The Cubs John Lackey (7-7, 3.79) has been getting ripped by opposing batters in losing five consecutive decisions, while Chris Sale (14-3, 3.18) has just been doing some ripping, tearing and cutting, thinking about life after baseball as a seamstress. The Cubs ended two-game losing streak to their cross-town rivals yesterday and have been taken from -120 to -130 home favorites in spite of Lackey’s losing ways. At first glance the North Siders appear WAY overvalued, yet against left-handed starters this season they are 22-11. Probably best to pass, nonetheless, no discounting Sale with 2.08 road ERA and Pale Hose 7-3 when he take the ball in more normal Sox togs.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Cubs
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean White Sox
MLB – (917) BALTIMORE at (918) MINNESOTA 7:05 ET MASN, FSNO
No question who the better team is here, Baltimore. But this is makeup game and though I do not have exact number, I do know I have won eight picks in 10 tries going against the visiting team in this spot. This is why I disagree with line movement of Minnesota lowered from -125 to -105, fully believing the Orioles lack of interest will manifest itself. Throw in Ubaldo Jimenez (5-9, 7.38) is the O’s starter and they have much bigger series this weekend in Toronto, no-brainer for me to take Twinkies at even better price.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Minnesota
Doug’s VPID Take – Minnesota wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 136-132-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 121-101-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 256-235-2