For line moves today, one contest had to get cut, thus we chopped the Arizona and Milwaukee sinking total, but we will still keep an eye on it. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (155-124, 55.5%) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (961) OAKLAND at (962) TEXAS 8:10 ET CSN-CA, FSSW
Yu Darvish (2-2, 3.12 ERA) is starting to round into form since coming off the DL and with Oakland’s Sean Manaea (3-5, 4.61), having not allowed a run in three of his four starts, those betting baseball confidently adjusted the total from 9.5 to 9. A strong case can be made for higher score with the A’s are 10-2 OVER in road games versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. No matter the posted total, in either case Texas is 19-10 OVER at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (963) N.Y.YANKEES at (964) HOUSTON 8:10 ET YES, RTSW
This AL affair has all the makings of a lower scoring contest and the sportsbooks have followed suit, lowering the 7.5 to 7. Houston’s has gone meat locker cold with 12 hits and only four runs in the series thus far and they will face a Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 3.00), who leads the big leagues with a 1.50 ERA on the road. The Astros will counter with Lance McCullers (5-4, 3.33), who has a 2.37 ERA at Juice Park (Minute Maid) and is 8-0 UNDER this year when throwing at home.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (965) L.A.A. ANGELS at (966) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET FSW, FSKC
After being one of the best home teams all season, World Series champion Kansas City is dismal 2-6 on the homestand and are in danger of being swept by the Angels from Anaheim. The Royals have tumbled 20 cents on the money line to -115, but will have one of their most reliable starters in Danny Duffy (6-1, 2.14) toe the slab, after his sixth consecutive victory. The Halos will utilize Matt Shoemaker (5-10, 3.99), who has pitched in some tough luck, making seven starts this year when he’s allowed two runs or less without getting a win. Nonetheless, the Angels are 3-7 away from home when Shoemaker starts and Duffy and company are 9-0 as a favorite of -110 or higher in 2016.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Kansas City
Doug’s VPID Take – Kansas City wins
MLB – (975) COLORADO at (976) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET RTRM, MASN
The names Jon Gray (6-4, 4.12) and Dylan Bundy (3-2, 3.30) might not be on the lips of the more casual fans, but those making baseball picks are very familiar with these talent talented young hurlers and have shifted the total from 9.5 to 9. These two clubs are a combined 31-10 UNDER this month (Baltimore 16-5 UNDER), which includes the outcomes of the past two nights. Plus, when the total is 8.5 to 10, NL teams in July with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better are 43-14 UNDER since 2012.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 134-131-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 120-101-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 254-233-2