It is the final week of July and we have quite a few line moves to go over on this Monday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (149-123) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (951) PHILADELPHIA at (952) MIAMI 7:10 ET CSP, FSFL (side and total)
Jarred Cosart (0-1, 7.98 ERA) returns to the Marlins rotation with Bruce Chen out of commission for awhile. Cosart will face Jeremy Hellickson (7-7, 3.84) of Philadelphia, who might be his teammate by the end of the week if reports turn out to be true. At this time, Miami would be a part of the playoffs and have been elevated from -140 to -155, with the total lowered from 8.5 to 8. Hellickson has mostly been in good form this season, leading to falling total and recent three-start ERA is 2.70. The Marlins do have better team but with Phillies reaching double digit hits in four of last five outings, they should have shot a victory.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Miami and 72% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Miami and Lean Under
MLB – (953) ST. LOUIS at (954) N.Y. METS 8:10 ET FSMW, SNY (side and total)
Noah Syndergaard (9-4, 2.43) is swiftly emerging as the ace the Mets staff and when he throws at Citi Field, opposing bats go even quieter, with the right-hander having 81 K’s and only six walks in 62 1/3 innings at home. In spite of Carlos Martinez (9-6, 2.83) having a 0.57 ERA in five career appearances (two starts) against New York, the Metropolitans have blown up from -140 to -170 over St. Louis. Though the total going from 6.5 to 7 is a surprise, if it holds up by first pitch, 40 of the last 61 times the total went this way, it ended up being an OVER.
Betting Trend – 86% backing New York and 78% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New York and Over4
MLB – (959) DETROIT at (960) BOSTON 7:10 ET ESPN
Until this season, Drew Pomeranz (8-7, 2.83) was being talked about in still quiet tones as first round draft bust. Out of nowhere, he has blossomed and Boston coveted his services with a starting staff whose ERA is 10th in the American League. Seeing Boston is a East Coast media hub, Pomeranz first start was definitely unimpressive (3 innings, 5 runs, 8 hits (2 HR’s) and two walks) but nerves could have played a big part. With Detroit’s Justin Verlander (9-6, 3.74) having made alteration to delivery, he has a 1.74 ERA in past trio of starts. With all this info, the Red Sox have been dropped from -145 to -130. I agree with line movement and with the BoSox facing hot hurler and being 2-9 after scoring eight runs or more in two straight games this season, the underdog is attractive.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Detroit wins
MLB – (963) N.Y. YANKEES at (964) HOUSTON 8:10 ET WPIX, RTSW
Houston’s Dallas Keuchel (6-9, 4.70) has not found the consistency that made him a Cy Young winner a year ago, but is making progress with a 2.33 ERA in past three outings and has lifetime ERA of 1.45 versus the Yankees. This is driving force for total falling dramatically from 8 to 7. What you do not know is which Michael Pineda (4-9, 5.25) shows up. Realistically, it is just a guess and while a case could be made for Under, Pineda is 11-2 OVER in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 132-129-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 116-100-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 249-229-2