We have a load of afternoon Wednesday action and some of the line moves are occurring just as we start going over the numbers, thus we will focus on the contests later in the day. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (144-117, 55.1% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (905) MILWAUKEE at (906) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET FSWI, RTPT
With Pittsburgh’s Jeff Locke (8-5, 5.26 ERA) allowing eight earned runs and 11 hits in nine innings in his last two starts and Milwaukee’s Chase Anderson (4-10, 5.44) having not made it past the fifth inning in his past three starts (7.30 ERA), it is relatively easy to understand why the total crept up from 8.5 to 9. For those betting baseball, Locke seems close to a lock for totals action with a 12-3 OVER mark when the total is 8.5 to 10 since 2014 and he’s also 8-0 OVER this season when facing losing teams.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (909) L.A. DODGERS at (910) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET SNLA, MASN2
Hyun-Jin Ryu was listed as the original starter for Los Angeles in the middle game of the series, but he went on the DL again before last night’s contest and Bud Norris (5-7, 4.17) has taken his place. Norris has made two quality starts in three tries for the Dodgers since coming over from Atlanta, but is more known to MLB bettors as good home pitcher and horrible on the road. Nevertheless, Gio Gonzalez (5-8, 4.70) has hardly been in any kind of groove all season and Washington has fallen from -150 to -115 favorites. If you are thinking of taking L.A., understand this adjustment places them in a bad spot, as they are 2-12 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington
MLB – (921) BALTIMORE at (922) N.Y. YANKEES 7:05 ET MASN, YES
The Yankees Michael Pineda (3-9, 5.56) continues to be as inconsistent as ever, but with the Baltimore offense only averaging 2.4 runs per game in their last seven outings, somebody has helped push the total from 9.5 to 8.5 at sportsbooks. The Orioles Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 5.77) does not figure to be a big help in keeping the score down. However, when pulling out the shovel, dug up this MLB system which must be considered. – When an AL home team like the Yankees has a slugging percentage of .410 or lower against a lousy AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.70 or higher, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.40, the UNDER is 38-10 the last 19 years.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (925) TAMPA BAY at (926) COLORADO 3:10 ET SUN
With Tampa Bay’s moribund offense finally showing a pulse in scoring 19 runs in past three encounters, there evidently is enough faith in Chris Archer (4-13, 4.68) to finally deliver a strong outing, with the Rays shifted from +110 to -110. I’m not quite as sure with Jorge De La Rosa (6-6, 5.50) sporting a 2.68 ERA in last half dozen starts (4-2 record) and he and Colorado 13-3 at Coors Field when the money line is +125 to -125 the last three years.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – Colorado wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 129-127-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 113-96-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 243-223-2