In the eight years I have been writing about line moves, I cannot remember so few changes in baseball like today. The All-Star break has bettors not quite yet dialed in and we will instead talk about the moves in the WNBA and Canadien football. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (136-107, 55.9 % of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (959) MIAMI at (960) ST. LOUIS 8:15 ET FSFL, FSMW
Not many would have thought Miami (47-41) would have a better record at this juncture of the season than St. Louis (46-42), yet they do. Evidently Jaime Garcia (6-6, 4.01 ERA) is going to be able to cool off a pot pie out of the oven hot Giancarlo Stanton, whose raised his batting average 40 points in three weeks (still just .233) and been on home run binge. I would really like to make a case for not moving the total from 8.5 to 8, but Garcia is 14-4 UNDER at Busch Stadium since last year and his mound foe Wei-Yin Chen (5-3, 4.83) is 24-10 UNDER the past three years versus winning teams.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
WNBA – (603) ATLANTA at (604) INDIANA 7:00 ET (side and total)
Both these clubs have been ordinary most of the season, but recently been very solid against the spread. Both are 5-2 ATS in past seven tries, yet those betting basketball have pushed Indiana from -3 to -4.5 over Atlanta. Motivation will not be an issue with each squad off a 20+ point beat-down in last contest. For my money, cannot overlook Atlanta is on a 24-10 ATS move as an underdog and if they have covered two of three, are a brilliant 20-3 ATS. Despite five of the past six encounters have been Over’s, the total has slipped from 160 to 158.5. While Atlanta is 6-0 UNDER on the road against teams scoring 73 or more points a game, they are also 10-2 OVER after an away defeat by 10 or more points and Indiana is 10-2 OVER at home off a home game.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Indiana and 71% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Atlanta covers and Over
CFL – (305) HAMILTON at (306) MONTREAL 7:30 ET W-ESPN (side and total)
This CFL collision opened as a Pick at many sportsbooks. Since, visiting Hamilton has been bumped to -2 over Montreal. The Tiger Cats are off two home losses in which they committed unfathomable 11 turnovers and one can only surmise football bettors are thinking Hamilton will protect the pigskin better. Montreal was off last week and will be attempting to generate more points, having averaged only 17.5 PPG in two outings. With the Ticats at only 27 total points in defeat, the total has dropped from 49.5 to 47. In truth, Hamilton is the better club and is 11-3 ATS off two or more consecutive Under’s the last three seasons and is 12-4 UNDER as a favorite since last year. Toss in the Alouettes are 11-2 UNDER when catching points and we have a lower scoring affair.
Betting Trend – None
Doug’s VPID Take – Hamilton covers and Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 121-125-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 110-94-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 231-217-2