It’s the final week of the NFL regular season and we have the latest line moves. They include what has happened in recent days and updates from earlier in the week. Also check out all the latest betting trends and our free picks for today contests, which are 45-34, recently.
NFL – (301) N.Y. JETS at (302) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS (side and total)
This rivalry opened as a Pick and with the Jets win over New England, New York flew to -3. The Jets are better on both sides of the ball and have the hotter quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick. Ex-coach Rex Ryan will be out to destroy his former team’s postseason plans and a big Buffalo effort is expected especially at home. Gang Green is 13-29 ATS against teams who average 4.5 or more yards a carry. On Wednesday morning, the total started to crumble from opening 44 to 42.5 and I agree with that since home teams like the Bills, who have lost four or five out of their last six games, in the last two weeks of the regular season, are 35-12 UNDER. Update – Jets the last couple days have been back and forth from -2.5 to -3, with the total having dipped even further to 41.
Betting Trend – 82% backing New York and 61% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Buffalo covers and Lean Under
NFL – (315) OAKLAND at (316) KANSAS CITY 4:25 ET CBS
The Kansas City defense continues to mummify opponents, holding them to 13.1 PPG in their last 11 contests. Though these rivals have played four straight Over’s, but the Oakland offense line is not as strong as earlier and the Chiefs could whip them. The total has been lowered from 45 to 43.5, however the Raiders are 8-2 OVER as underdogs this season. Update – Rock steady all week with reports of very light action.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (319) WASHINGTON at (320) DALLAS 1:00 ET FOX *New*
Washington coach Jay Gruden has said he will play the “healthy starters” against Dallas. Of course he did not identify what those words actually mean, but bettors were more than comfortable moving them the Redskins from Pick to +4. Best advice is to Pass, or play the Cowboys if you must. Really not sure how to read betting trend because sharps not on Dallas.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight Lean Dallas
NFL – (321) DETROIT at (322) CHICAGO 1:00 ET FOX
The Lions defense has turned into strength of team holding last seven opponents to 19.2 PPG. With Chicago hardly a juggernaut offensively at 21 PPG, the total has been sinking like the temperatures in the Midwest from 46.5 to 45 in this finale for both teams. Detroit comes in 11-3 UNDER in road games since last season. Update – The total starting heading back up, now at 45.5 almost everywhere. The bigger news is the Lions were flipped from +1 to -1 point favorites. Have to agree and bought it early myself at the previous number, with Chicago 1-6 SU at home this season.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Detroit and 74% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Detroit covers and Under
NFL – (325) MINNESOTA at (326) GREEN BAY 8:25 ET NBC
Bettors have seen enough of the Green Bay offense to figure out points are going to be hard to come by even at Lambeau Field and scraped three points off the total to 45.5. Aaron Rodgers needs help and with a battered offense line and receivers unable to create separation, where does the offense come from? Minnesota has scored more of late, but part of that has been creating turnovers leading to scores, which cannot be counted on. The Vikes are 11-3-1 UNDER on the road the last two years. Update – The total has held steady all week at 45.5.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NFL – (327) SAN DIEGO at (328) DENVER 4:25 ET CBS
Denver battled their way to a victory on Monday over Cincinnati and evidently the Broncos are going to batter their way to a win over San Diego. Denver has been pumped from -7.5 to -9, with few thinking a beleaguered Chargers offense outside of Philip Rivers, will stand up to the Broncos ferocious defense. It might be a division game, but San Diego players are more likely wondering about if a coaching change is coming and will they have a new home next season. The Bolts have lost seven straight AFC West games and Denver is 6-0 ATS after a win by six or less points the last two seasons. Update – Though Denver at -9 is largely the choice, I did find a couple -10’s, so if you want to avoid double digits with the Broncos, better do so immediately. Also, though the total of 41.5 has remained the same all week, over 90% are backing the OVER. Interesting.
Betting Trend – 69% backing San Diego
Doug’s VPID Take – Denver covers
NFL – (331) SEATTLE at (332) ARIZONA 4:25 ET FOX *New*
There is a lot of speculation about how much Seattle starters will play in this game with Wild Card clash on deck and Arizona coach Bruce Arians has stated, “…my starters will play.” This definitely played a part in the Cardinals rising from -4 to -6 in this divisional clash. The NFL did it’s best to level the playing field by moving Carolina to same start as this game to level the playing field for the Panthers and Arizona. I’m just not certain how hard the Seahawks play and would be inclined to back the line move.
Betting Trend – 61% backing Seattle
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight Lean Arizona