Another big weekend of college basketball along with the NBA. We have some of the biggest line moves on Saturday, along a look at two key games on Sunday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (Slight leans no longer graded), to see what we are thinking after hot run of 15-7 the last few days. See you back here Monday.
NBA – (511) SACRAMENTO at (512) MEMPHIS 8:05 ET CSN-CA, FSSE
After stringing together a five-game winning streak (5-0 ATS), Sacramento has gone backwards again in losing three in a row. If you are a Kings fan or follower, you have seen this movie before. Sacramento has returned to their lethargic defense ways, surrendering 118.3 PPG in those last trio of contests, further cementing their last place ranking in points allowed at 107.9 PPG. With Memphis averaging 103.1 PPG in their last seven outings (season avr. 96.9), bettors pushed the total up two points to 203. With the Grizziles not as good as in years past, count me in on this line movement.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CBB – (589) NEW MEXICO at (590) BOISE STATE 5:00 ET W-ESPN
Over the last several years, these two Mountain West Conference partners have a lot in common. Both are very good when playing before the home folks and not so hot on the road. With this dynamic, Boise State has been boosted from -5 to -7 over New Mexico. The Lobos are 3-6 and 3-5 ATS away from home and are 3-11 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games. The Broncos are 10-1 at home and 14-3 ATS after one or more Over’s.
Betting Trend – 54% backing New Mexico
Doug’s VPID Take – Boise State covers
CBB – (635) SAN DIEGO STATE at (636) UNLV 8:00 ET CBSSN
About the only way a total moves this much in college basketball is a boatload of money wagered on what is considered an oddsmakers error. This MWC matchup opened at 123 and has zoomed to 129.5. From one perspective, San Diego State is excellent in dictating tempo and remains a below average shooting team. Since UNLV made somewhat controversial coaching change, they have begun to look the Runnin’ Rebels again and are averaging 82.3 PPG in their past five contests. Though much of the value is gone, still like the direction and UNLV is 14-4 OVER after playing three consecutive games as favorite the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CBB – (659) OREGON STATE at (660) ARIZONA 9:30 ET PAC-12N
Suddenly a lot of unrest about Arizona basketball. All season this team has coasted a bit too much, which has frustrated coach Sean Miller and after seeing 49-game home winning streak snapped by Oregon despite shooting over 61 percent, Miller went off and questioned the leadership of this team. Normally, hoops bettors would be all over the Wildcats at home off a loss, but this feels different, like Arizona could either come together or splinter apart. The betting action has been on the latter, taking the ‘Cats from -13.5 to -11. Completely understand the argument, but Arizona is 25-12 off two or more losses and Oregon State is 4-12 ATS away from Corvallis.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Arizona
Doug’s VPID Take – Arizona covers
CBB – Sunday (849) MARYLAND at (850) OHIO STATE 1:00 ET CBS
Great storylines in the Big Ten battle. Maryland is off large victory over Iowa at home handing them their first conference loss of the season. The Terps head to Columbus to face what should be a fired up Ohio State crew, who was embarrassed 100-65 in College Park 15 days ago. Maryland is only 2-3 and 1-2-2 ATS on the road, while the Buckeyes are much better at home at 11-3 and 8-6 ATS.
Anticipated Line – Maryland by 4-6 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Ohio State (at these numbers)
NBA – Sunday (839) GOLDEN STATE at (840) NEW YORK 7:35 ET CSBA, MSG
This will be like the circus coming to town with Golden State in the Big Apple. We know how great the Warriors have been all season and New York has been solid at home with 14-10 SU and ATS marks. The Knicks will be juiced for this encounter, while Golden State played at Philly Saturday, but is super 10-1 and 8-2-1 ATS with no rest, winning by 11.2 PPG.
Anticipated Line – Golden State by 9-11 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Golden State