Early in the day, not too much going on yet for line moves in the NBA, but quite a bit happening in college basketball and we narrowed it down to three contests. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (Slight leans no longer graded), to see what we are thinking after hot run of 13-5 the last few days. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (703) ATLANTA at (704) INDIANA 7:05 ET FSSE,FSMW
Other than one game for each team, both these Eastern Conference clubs have been in a bit of an offensive funk. Atlanta has scored 98 or fewer points in four of their last six contests, including only 83 last night in loss to the L.A. Clippers. And other than Indiana scoring 110 at Golden State, the Pacers are at 94.3 points a game in three other outings. This why bettors confidently lowered the total two points to 201.5 and we agree, with the Hawks playing tremendous defense and holding teams to 92 PPG in their last seven.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CBB – (713) NOTRE DAME at (714) SYRACUSE 7:00 ET ESPN2
Sometimes bettors overreact to injuries with knee-jerk plays, however, this has gone the other way and I’m not sure why. Notre Dame will be without Demetrius Jackson, having pulled a hamstring in the first two minutes of the game last Saturday. Jackson is a Top 10 point guard in college basketball and his ability to drive and make three’s would seem to be very important against Syracuse 2-3 zone defense. That is why I am quite surprised the Fighting Irish were lowered from +3.5 to +2 at the Carrier Dome. Granted, Notre Dame is a better offensive team and can make three’s and have covered seven of last 12 in Syracuse, but the return of Jim Boeheim has the Orange playing better and they are 3-1 and 4-0 ATS in past four ACC contests. This could go back up by game time.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Syracuse
Doug’s VPID Take – Syracuse covers
CBB – (717) IOWA at (718) MARYLAND 7:00 ET ESPN
A number of very good games on the Thursday docket and one of the best will be this Big Ten clash. The wagering action has been on the total which is up two points to 127. I was immediately drawn to playing the Under, because other than the Ohio State game where Maryland reached 100 points, in the four other most recent conference contests, the Terps have averaged only 64.2 PPG. Granted, three of those were on the road, plus, Iowa prefers to play all 94 feet at a rapid pace and even averages eight more shots a game than Maryland. Unless the Hawkeyes have off-shooting night, which they seldom have, backing the OVER is the play with Iowa 14-4 OVER in road games after three or more consecutive Over’s.
Betting Trend – 91% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CBB – (753) OREGON STATE at (754) ARIZONA STATE 8:30 ET PAC-12N
Arizona State might be 1-6 in Pac-12 action, yet they are 6-1 OVER, with average score of their games at 156.4 PPG. Backed with this intel, why are sportsbooks dropping this total like people vowing not to go to McDonald’s because their new mozzarella sticks have no cheese? It might have something to do with Oregon State averaging 53.5 PPG on the conference road. That might be an overvalued assumption, since they have only played two times in league action. Nonetheless, unless there is unreported injury, the Sun Devils want get up and down the floor and are 9-2 OVER in Tempe after one or more losses, with the Beavers 7-0 OVER having lost three of four games the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over