Once again, the NBA takes center stage on Martin Luther King Day and we have all the latest line moves, along with a prime time totals move in the Big 12. The huge game of the day is Golden State at Cleveland on TNT and there has been a couple minor moves on the total being lowered and the Cavs up as short favorites. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (Slight leans no longer graded), to see what we are thinking. See you back here on Tuesday.
NBA – (503) UTAH at (504) CHARLOTTE 2:05 ET FSS, RTRM+
Utah opens a five-game road and with Derrick Favors out with an injury, the Jazz outside of Gordon Hayward is lacking in reliable scoring options and are 25th in scoring, playing a slower tempo game. Charlotte is in the midst of another horrendous slump at 1-9 (3-7 ATS) and is averaging only 96.2 PPG in their last five contests, compared to season average of 101.1 PPG. This has compelled bettors and sportsbooks to lower the total from 190 to 185.5. With Utah off a 109-82 drubbing of the Lakers, they are 20-5 UNDER after allowing 85 points or less.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NBA – (505) PORTLAND at (506) WASHINGTON 2:05 ET CSMA, CSNW
With Portland 4-2 OVER in past six games and playing shoddy defense in surrendering 108.3 PPG and Washington 4-0-1 OVER in last five outings (average total score 217), oddsmakers sent out an opening line of 215. Hoops bettors were not so sure this would happen and the total has been lowered to 212.5. While recent play is a good indicator about future results, so is longer term trends and the Trail Blazers average 98.9 PPG on the road and the Wizards 102.9 PPG t home. With the adjusted total, we find home teams with a losing record when the total is 200 or higher, off a home loss by three points or less, are 34-10 OVER the last five years.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NBA – (513) BROOKLYN at (514) TORONTO 7:35 ET YES, SN1
If not for Philadelphia, Brooklyn would be the worst scoring team in the NBA, coming in at a lowly 95.6 PPG. The Sixers at least have the excuse they are not trying, attempting to assemble 10 No.1 draft choices in a row, while the Nets just stink. Brooklyn’s inability stretch the nylon has helped lower this total three points to 198. With the Nets catching 11 points in Canada, they are 12-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Under
CBB – (535) OKLAHOMA at (536) IOWA STATE 9:00 ET ESPN
It is not very often the total of an Iowa State home games comes down, but this is one of those instances. In their matchup with Oklahoma, the opening number of 169 was the highest release on both Big 12 clubs, but it has since been lowered to 166.5. The rationale for points is justified with both averaging over 85 PPG and each has allowed over 81 PPG in conference action, yet the Sooners are 12-4 UNDER in road games off a home win.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under