Sports Betting Line Moves and Free Picks for Jan.1-2

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Hope everyone had a great time yesterday and Happy New Year! Here are the biggest line moves in bowl games the next couple of days. Check out all the latest betting trends and our free picks for today contests, which are 42-33, recently. See you back here Sunday with the Week 17 action in the NFL.

 

OUTBACK BOWL

JAN.1/ 12:00 ET  ESPN2

(263) TENNESSEE vs. (264) NORTHWESTERN

Tennessee is more than touchdown favorite and you have to wonder if the reason the total has gone up from 45.5 to 47 is not directly related to them as the favored club. Northwestern is great on defense but very limited on offense scoring just 20.7 PPG. The Wildcats are 25-10 UNDER after two or more consecutive straight up wins. UpdateThe total has continued to climb a little higher, now at 47.5 and 48 at some sportsbooks, which would seem to favor Tennessee.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

CITRUS BOWL

JAN.1/ 1:00 ET  ABC

(265) FLORIDA vs. (266) MICHIGAN

Not many ways to look at this contest, looking like a war in the trenches. This has helped push the total from 41.5 to 39. However, both coaches are offensive-minded and having a few wrinkles for big plays could easily push the points over original number in Orlando. Michigan is 9-1 OVER  in away games against SEC opponents. UpdateA few stragglers on either side of 39, but for the most part has held up at reduced number. I will stick with original thinking on the OVER.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.comFIESTA BOWL

JAN.1/ 1:00 ET  ESPN

(267) NOTRE DAME vs. (268) OHIO STATE

 

Lots of offensive firepower between these two teams, with big plays a real possibility on a fast track. Reports have Notre Dame “excited” to play Ohio State and the total has been shoved upwards from 54 to 56.5. The Irish are 6-0 OVER off a loss and the Buckeyes are 11-2 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63. UpdateOn Thursday, started to see push to 57 and expect this to be the number or possibly higher come game time.

Betting Trend – 90% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

SUGAR BOWL

JAN.1/ 8:30 ET  ESPN

(271) MISSISSIPPI vs. (272) OKLAHOMA STATE

This total rising is not surprising in the least, because both offenses can get cooking and each defense has shown they will give up yards and points when facing better competition. This sugary total is up from 66.5 to new landing spot of 68, yet oddly Mississippi is 11-2 UNDER versus offensive teams scoring 37 or more points a game. UpdateNew information has this total anywhere from 68 to 69 points and trending upwards.

Betting Trend – 85% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

LIBERTY BOWL  *New*

JAN.2/ 3:20 ET  ESPN

(275) KANSAS STATE vs. (276) ARKANSAS

This bowl battle started out at 60 and this week began inching downward to 58.5, but in the last few days really plummeted to 55.5 at many sportsbooks both in Nevada and offshore. But oddly, not all, and there is still about 20 percent who are still in the 58 to 59 range, making this the strangest line of the bowl season, which harkens back to a days when this is how books used to be in Las Vegas as independent operators. I’m not seeing it because Kansas State defense has not been good against strong offenses and Bill Snyder’s clubs never quit and Arkansas does allow 27.7 PPG.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

ALAMO BOWL

JAN.2/ 6:45 ET  ESPN

(277) TCU vs. (278) OREGON

Once this total was released, it shot up quicker than a Stephen Curry three-pointer, lifting from 75 to 78. Impossible to disagree with these prolific offenses and a pair of not so outstanding defenses. By game time, 80 total points is a real possibility for the Horned Frogs and Ducks in San Antonio. UpdateWith QB Trevone Boykin suspended for striking a police officer, early Thursday morning, this total has really been coming down, now at 73.5 at last look. This adjustment was made by oddsmakers, not by betting action and a lot of people holding OVER tickets might by getting screwed. Best advice is to wait and bet lowest possible number on UNDER, cut your losses on the juice and maybe you get a middle.

Betting Trend – 86% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Pass

CACTUS BOWL

JAN.2/ 10:15 ET  ESPN

(279) WEST VIRGINIA vs. (280) ARIZONA STATE

The last known regular bowl has the home town team being flipped from favorite to underdog. Arizona State’s campus is about 18 minutes from Chase Field but the Sun Devils have gone from -1 to +1. West Virginia has better defensive team on two fronts, points allowed (23.2 vs. 32.7 PPG) and yardage (387 vs. 446) , yet can match points with ASU, scoring  33.2 PPG against the Devils 34. . UpdateWest Virginia did go as high as -1.5 on Wednesday, but has settled back to -1. The total the past few days has been bottoming out like that last bottle of champagne on New Year’s Eve from 66.5 to 64. The ‘Teers do come into this game 17-7 UNDER the last two years.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Arizona State and 51% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Arizona State covers and Under

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