For line moves today and many days into the future, it is all about the horsehide, with baseball the main topic the next couple months until NFL camps open in August. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (104-76, 57.7% of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (907) L.A. DODGERS at (908) ARIZONA 9:40 ET SNLA, FSAZ
Even though the Dodgers offense is really laboring, scoring 2.1 runs per game in their last seven outings, the money flow is on Los Angeles. Kenta Maeda (5-4, 2.70 ERA) broke quickly from the gate, cooled off, but has gotten back into a great groove with a 1.00 ERA in his past three starts. The Japanese right-hander has also been tough customer on the road with 1.91 ERA and he and the Dodgers are 4-1 away from home. This all adds up to L.A. being pumped up from -120 to -140 or more away favorites. Though Arizona has three in a row for the first time since early May (6th-10th), they are 2-11at home after three or more consecutive wins the last three. seasons.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take – Los Angeles wins
MLB – (911) MILWAUKEE at (912) SAN FRANCISCO 10:15 ET FSWI, CSN-BA
In nine career starts against Milwaukee, Madison Bumgarner (7-2, 1.88) is 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA and it is safe to say he is not the reason why the total is going up from 6.5 to 7. Instead, it is likely because Matt Garza is making season debut for the Brewers. Garza was injured in final spring start and has been out since and he’s coming off a horrible 2015. With the Brew Crew 11-3 OVER in road games after a loss and MadBum 15-5 OVER at home versus a NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 2014, have to agree with sportsbooks.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (917) DETROIT at (918) CHI. WHITE SOX 8:10 ET FSD, CSN-C
Doesn’t it seem like it was just yesterday Jordan Zimmermann (8-3, 3.30) was dominating the AL? Well, it was about a month ago, but Zimm has returned to planet earth and has been getting roughed up more often and those betting baseball are less enthusiastic about him and have dropped Detroit from -130 to -111 at the Chicago White Sox. Having lost 10-9 last night in spectacular fashion (7-0 lead) at The Cell, the Tigers need this contest, having to face Chris Sale tomorrow and four-game slate at Kansas City on deck. Miguel Gonzalez (1-1, 3.57) toes the rubber for the Pale Hose and with the total at 9, the righty is 18-8 when the total is 9 to 9.5 in his career. (Team’s Record) Digging a touch deeper, we find Detroit is 7-0 after plating nine or more times.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take -Lean Detroit
MLB – (923) TEXAS at (924) OAKLAND 10:05 ET FSSW, CSN-CA
Not sure I understand why Texas went from -120 favorites to +105 underdogs at Oakland, Sure they were clobbered 14-5 last night, but they have hot pitcher in Martin Perez (5-4, 3.22), who in his past four starts has gone 4-0 with a 2.63 ERA. Oakland’s depleted starting staff is forced to give Eric Surkamp another chance and he is 0-3 with a 6.41 ERA over 26 2/3 innings. He has 14 strikeouts and 15 walks. I do know Perez has an ERA of 5.81 in nine starts versus the A’s, yet I still prefer to ride with the Rangers here since they are 8-0 against an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse the last two years.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Texas
Doug’s VPID Take – Texas wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 107-110-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 89-76-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 196-182-2