Time to delve into the usual Thursday line moves which include the NBA, NHL and college basketball. We added we new feature that allows you to follow how accurate the public is as a consensus on two platforms. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (Slight leans no longer graded), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (701) NEW YORK at (702) DETROIT 7:05 ET TNT (side and total)
For some reason, bettors have an affinity for Detroit totals this week, the third such line move on their games, lowered from 204 to 202. There is not been anything in their profile to suggest a lower figure in recent contests, scoring and allowing over 104 points a game in their last five. New York on the other hand could the reason for falling total. Skip the 122 points they scored versus Oklahoma City, they have averaged 91.8 PPG in the six contests around that encounter. The Pistons have also been dumped as a favorite by two points to -4.5 in spite of 15-8 and 15-7-1 ATS home records. Undoubtedly, the Knicks 14-7 ATS road underdog record is the cause of sinking side number.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Detroit and 82% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans New York and Over
CBB – (711) TEXAS A&M at (712) VANDERBILT 7:00 ET ESPN2
These two SEC squads are in the Top 18 of Kenpom.com’s – Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ratings – yet the total has blossomed from 135.5 to 138. What gives? These are still two good offensive teams, averaging over 76 PPG which has to play into the equation. Nonetheless, none of the three previous meetings has reached 130 total points and Texas A&M is 7-1 UNDER after playing five consecutive games as favorite this season. Unless Vanderbilt is lights out from beyond the arc, prefer the UNDER.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CBB – (755) TROY at (756) ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK 8:15 ET
Seemingly suspicious line move in this Sun Belt showdown. Arkansas-Little Rock is 19-2 and has a two-game lead in the conference and faces a Troy troop that is 6-15 and 2-8 (5-5 ATS) on the road. The Red Wolves has been taken down from -17 to -14.5. AKLR is only 2-3 ATS when doling out more than 8.5 points this season and Troy gave them a game at home just over a month ago, losing 67-61 as 8.5-point home underdogs. You cannot look past the Trojans are 9-0 ATS off two home losses, nonetheless, they are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven and with the total at 137, the home team is 20-7 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 72% Backing Troy
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arkansas-Little Rock
NHL – (21) ANAHEIM at (22) LOS ANGELES 10:05 ET NBCSN
We had three line moves on ice that were 15 cents, thus we went for best matchup that is televised to broadest audience. First place Los Angeles knew eventually Anaheim would get out of offensive funk and make a move in the standings. The Duck have done just that, winning four straight and six of seven and are third place in the Pacific Division. Pucks bettors are backing Anaheim, who is down from +130 to +115 and they have five of last seven at the Staples Center. While I like how the Ducks are trending, the Kings are 7-0 after two or more consecutive Over’s this season.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Los Angeles
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 1-0
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 1-1